新疆城市社区卫生服务机构“2+X”家庭医生团队预测及运行研究  

Development Prediction and Operation Research of"2+X"-type Family Doctor Team in Xinjiang's Urban Community Health Organizations

作　　者：马国芳[1] 王小娜 王昕[2] MA Guofang;WANG Xiaona;WANG Xin(School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830011,China;School of Humanities and Social Sciences,China Medical University,Shenyang 110122,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学公共卫生学院,新疆维吾尔自治区乌鲁木齐市830011 [2]中国医科大学人文社科学院,辽宁省沈阳市110122

出　　处：《中国全科医学》2020年第19期2412-2416,共5页Chinese General Practice

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金资助项目(2019D01C201);自治区“十三五”重点学科(高原学科)——公共卫生与预防医学(99-11091113404)。

摘　　要：背景家庭医生团队作为签约服务的提供主体,基于目前的人力资源现状,如何科学地组建家庭医生团队是进一步推广家庭医生签约服务的关键。目的预测“2+X”家庭医生团队发展情况,探索新疆城市社区卫生服务机构家庭医生签约服务运行情况,为加快推进家庭医生签约服务提供科学依据。方法2011—2017年新疆城镇人口、城市社区卫生服务机构执业(助理)医师及注册护士数据来源于2012—2018年《新疆统计年鉴》。2018年新疆城镇人口数来源于新疆维吾尔自治区2018年国民经济和社会发展统计公报。本研究于2019年进行,依据2011—2017年上述数据,采用灰色预测模型GM(1,1),预估2019—2025年新疆城镇人口数及2018—2025年家庭医生团队相关卫生技术(卫技)人员数。计算2011—2025年新疆城市社区卫生服务机构“2+X”家庭医生团队数量情况。观察每3000服务人口的标准下和每2000服务人口的标准下,家庭医生团队服务人口数及“2+X”家庭医生团队服务人口覆盖率。结果预测2019—2025年新疆城镇人口数逐年增长,从2019年1317.39万人增至2025年1706.42万人;执业(助理)医师数逐年增长,由2019年的3083人增至2025年3268人;注册护士数逐年增长,由2019年3256人增至2025年3940人。以“2+X”家庭医生团队模式最低配置标准组建家庭医生团队,预测2018—2025年“2+X”家庭医生团队数量逐渐增多,且2025年理论上新疆城市社区卫生服务机构卫技人员能够组建3268个团队。2011—2016年注册护士数低于职业(助理)医师数,直到2017年有所改善,医师与护士比达1∶1.02,并一直保持上升趋势,但增长趋势较慢,预测2020年可达1∶1.08,2025年可达1∶1.21。由灰色模型GM(1,1)的预测结果可知,2011—2025年新疆城镇人口数总体呈上升趋势。以每3000服务人口数的家庭医生团队服务标准,“2+X”家庭医生团队服务人口覆盖率均在70%以上,Background Family doctor team is a main provider of contracted family doctor services.And how to scientifically establish a family doctor team using available human resources is the key to further promote such services.Objective To predict the development and operation of"2+X"-type family doctor team(consisting mainly of family doctors and nurses in combination with re-employed specialists retired from the secondary hospital,temporarily employed specialists,pharmacists,health managers and other healthcare workers)in urban community health institutions in Xijiang,to provide a scientific basis for accelerating the development of contracted family doctor services.Methods This study was conducted in 2019.The number of urban population,practicing(assistant)physicians and registered nurses working at urban community health institutions in Xinjiang of from 2011 to 2017 were obtained from 7 volumes of Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook(2012—2018).The urban population of Xinjiang in 2018 was derived from the 2018 Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Statistical Bulletin on National Economic And Social Development.Based on the above-mentioned data from 2011 to 2017,a Grey Prediction Model GM(1,1)was developed and adopted to estimate the urban population from 2019 to 2025 and the number of healthcare workers in family doctor teams from 2018 to 2025 in Xinjiang.And the number of"2+X"-type family doctor teams in urban community health institutions from 2011 to 2025 was also calculated.And the number of people and coverage of services delivered by"2+X"-type family doctor teams were estimated based on presumed ratios of 2000,and 3000 people to one family doctor,respectively.Results It is predicted that during 2019—2025,the urban population of Xinjiang would gradually increase from 13.1739 million in 2019 to 17.0642 million in 2025.The number of practicing(assistant)physicians would increase year by year,from 3083 in 2019 to 3268 in 2025.The number of registered nurses would also increase year by year,from 3256 in 2019 to 3940 in 202

关 键 词：全科医学 社区卫生中心 社区卫生工作者 预测 新疆 

分 类 号：R197[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]