2013-2017年合肥市PM10与居民非意外死亡的时间序列分析  

Time Series Analysis of PM10 and Residents’ Non-accidental Deaths in Hefei in 2013-2017

作　　者：许季祥 丁涛[1] 庚文风 耿茜雅 崔龙江 肖长春[2] 翟金霞[1] XU Jixiang;DING Tao;GENG Wenfeng;GENG Xiya;CUI Longjiang;XIAO Changchun;ZHAI Jinxia

机构地区：[1]安徽医科大学公共卫生学院,安徽省合肥市230032 [2]合肥市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《环境卫生学杂志》2020年第1期49-56,共8页JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE

摘　　要：目的探讨合肥市PM10与人群非意外死亡率的关联。方法收集2013-2017年合肥市每日空气污染物数据、气象数据以及居民死亡数据采用时间序列的分布滞后非线性模型来研究PM10质量浓度对居民死亡人数影响,按照性别、年龄、教育程度进行亚组分析,并分析纳入NO2和SO2后PM10对居民死亡的影响。结果合肥市2013-2017年PM10质量浓度为95μg/m3经过DLNM模型拟合分析得出,居民非意外死亡和心血管死亡风险随着PM10质量浓度的增加而增加,当PM10质量浓度每增加10μg/m^3,人群非意外死亡和心血管疾病死亡的超额危险度(95%CI)增加0.55%(0.23%87%)和0.97%(0.26%,1.68%)PM10与呼吸系统疾病死亡之间无统计学关联;纳入SO2和NO2后PM10与人群的非意外死亡、心血管疾病死亡以及呼吸系统疾病死亡之间的关联变弱;女性、老年人群对PM10更加敏感未发现PM10与死亡人群学历高低有关。结论合肥市PM10污染较为严重,对居民死亡人数造成影响。Objectives To explore the association between PM10 and non-accidental mortality in Hefei City.Methods Air pollutant data,meteorological data and daily resident death data were collected from Hefei City in2013-2017.A time-series distributed lag nonlinear model was used to explore the effect of PM10 and residents’ non-accidental deaths,and subgroup analysis was performed according to the gender,age,and education level.The effects of PM10 on residents’ deaths were analyzed after inclusion of NO2 and SO2.Results The average concentration of PM10 was 95 μg/m3 during the period of 2013-2017 in Hefei.The risk of non-accidental death and cardiovascular death increased with the increase of PM10.When the PM10 increased by 10 μg/m3,the excess risk(95% CI) of non-accidental death and cardiovascular death increased 0.55%(0.23%,0.87%) and 0.97%(0.26%,1.68%).No statistical association was found between PM10 and respiratory disease death.After inclusion of SO2 and NO2,the association between PM10 and non-accidental deaths,cardiovascular deaths,and respiratory deaths in the population became weaker.Female and older people were more sensitive to PM10.However PM10 was not related to the educational level of the dead.Conclusions The pollution of PM10 is serious in Hefei and has an impact on the number of deaths of residents.

关 键 词：可吸入颗粒物 非意外死亡 时间序列分析 分布滞后非线性模型 

分 类 号：R122.2[医药卫生—环境卫生学]