2019年中国主要畜产品贸易分析及2020年进口展望  

Analysis on China's Major Livestock Products Trade in 2019 and Import Prospect for 2020

作　　者：刘瑶[1] 刘丑生[1] 何洋 Liu Yao;Liu Chousheng;He Yang(National Animal Husbandry Service,Beijing 100125)

机构地区：[1]全国畜牧总站,北京100125

出　　处：《农业展望》2020年第3期134-139,共6页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：生猪等畜禽产品信息统计监测项目(2130111000001)。

摘　　要：2019年中国畜牧业发展出现波动,非洲猪瘟疫情冲击等不利因素引发畜产品国内供求结构失衡,不同畜产品间的消费替代效应明显,年内中国畜产品生产形势、消费结构及畜产品贸易形势发生重大变化。结合2019年国内畜牧业生产形势,通过对中国主要畜产品进出口量、商品结构及国际畜产品价格指数变化的分析发现,中国畜产品进口势头强劲,贸易逆差不断扩大,中国进口需求的增加在一定程度上也推动了国际畜产品价格指数的上涨。综合考虑国内生产发展、消费增长和国际贸易等因素的影响,预计2020年中国猪肉、禽肉、牛羊肉和乳制品等畜禽产品进口量仍将保持增长态势。The development of China's animal husbandry in 2019 fluctuated,and the impact of the African swine fever epidemic led to an imbalance in the domestic supply and demand structure of livestock products.Consumption substitution effects between consumption of livestock products were obvious.The production situation,consumption structure,and trade situation of livestock products in China during the year changed significantly.Based on the analysis of domestic animal husbandry production situation in 2019,through analyzing the changes in China's major animal products import and export volume,commodity structure,and the change of international animal products price indexes,it was showed that China's animal products imports had strong momentum,the trade deficit continued to expand,and the increase in import demand in China also pushed the international livestock products price index to a certain extent.Considering the impact of domestic production development,consumption growth,and international trade,it was expected that imports of livestock and poultry products such as pork,poultry,beef,mutton and dairy products in China would continue to grow in 2020.

关 键 词：畜禽产品贸易 进出口 价格 贸易结构 展望 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.6