东道国不确定性与中国ODI二元边际:兼论营商环境的调节效应  

Host Country Uncertainty and China′s ODI Binary Margins-On The Moderating Effect of Business Environment

作　　者：耿伟[1] 李亚楠 Geng Wei;Li Yanan

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2020年第4期107-119,M0004,共14页World Economy Studies

基　　金：“天津市高等学校创新团队培养计划”(项目编号:TD13-5063)项目资助.

摘　　要：关于不确定性对中国对外直接投资二元边际的影响,以往研究往往忽略了对外直接投资的结构特征。文章将东道国不确定性因素纳入异质性企业模型,分析了不确定性对中国ODI二元边际的影响机制,并运用2005~2017年中国企业对外直接投资数据,实证检验了东道国不确定性对中国对外直接投资二元边际的影响。研究结果表明:首先,东道国不确定性对中国对外直接投资的扩展边际具有显著的抑制作用,但是对集约边际的影响不显著;其次,不确定性对ODI扩展边际的抑制作用在金融危机后和在东道国不确定性大于中国的国家更明显;最后,引入营商环境因素研究发现,良好的营商环境对于东道国不确定性具有一定的正向调节效应。As for the impact of uncertainty on the binary margins of Chinese ODI,previous studies often neglected the structural characteristics of ODI. This paper incorporates the host country uncertainty into the heterogeneous firms model to analyze the mechanism of uncertainty affecting the binary margins of Chinese ODI. The results show that: firstly,the uncertainty of the host country has a significant inhibitory effect on extensive margin of China’s investment,but has no significant effect on intensive margin. Secondly,The inhibitory effect of uncertainty is more conspicuous for host countries where the uncertainty is greater than China and after the financial crisis. Further,the introduction of business environment shows that a good business environment has a positive moderating effect on the uncertainty of host country.

关 键 词：扩展边际 集约边际 对外直接投资 不确定性 营商环境 

分 类 号：F279.2[经济管理—企业管理] F125[经济管理—国民经济]