基于演化博弈的不安全行为的羊群效应研究  

Research on Herding Effect in Unsafe Behavior Based on Evolutionary Game

作　　者：陈洋 李爽[1,2] 张宇航[1,2] 曹庆仁 Chen Yang;Li Shuang;Zhang Yuhang;Cao Qinren(School of Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,Jiangsu,China;Center for Safety Science and Emergency Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏徐州221116 [2]中国矿业大学安全科学与应急管理研究中心,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《技术经济》2020年第2期144-155,共12页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“煤矿企业安全生产重大风险动态评估与智能预警研究”(71972176);国家自然科学基金“基于大数据挖掘的煤矿安全管理决策模型及仿真研究”(71573256);国家重点研发计划“矿山安全态势分析及预测预警系统”(2017YFC0804408)。

摘　　要：基于演化博弈理论,分析了高危行业员工跟随不安全行为的心理收益、生理收益和风险成本,不跟随时违反群体规范的成本,安全行为的收益,以及监管力度和法不责众的心理特征,从众心理等因素对不安全行为羊群效应的形成及演化的影响。研究结论表明,不安全行为羊群效应的产生与跟随不安全行为的收益及成本,监管力度等因素显著相关。并根据数值分析的结果,对不安全行为羊群效应的管控提出了建议,为安全生产中的群体不安全行为现象提供理论支持。On the basis of evolutionary game theory,the current research analyze the formation mechanism and influencing factors of herding effect in unsafe behavior by considering the psychological benefits,physiological benefits and risk costs of employees when they following unsafe behaviors,and the costs of violating group norms,the benefits of safe behavior when they are not following,and the power of supervision and the fluke mind that the law cannot be enforced when each one is an offender.The research results show that the generation of herding effect in unsafe behavior is affected by the benefits and costs of following unsafe behavior,and supervi sion of organization.Finally,based on the results of numerical analysis,this paper will give suggestions for the control of the herding effect in unsafe behavior and provide theoretical support for the phenomenon of group unsafe behavior in safe production.

关 键 词：安全生产 不安全行为 羊群效应 演化博弈 

分 类 号：F064.1[经济管理—政治经济学]