淮河流域洪涝灾害时间对称性研究  

Study on the law of time symmetry of Huaihe River Basin floods

作　　者：王云 延军平 马卫 WANG Yun;YAN Jun-ping;MA Wei(The School of Geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an 710119,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,西安710119

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2020年第1期358-366,共9页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41171090);国家社会科学基金重点项目(14AZD094);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(15JJD790022)联合资助.

摘　　要：准确判断重大自然灾害发生趋势对于防灾减灾意义重大.基于时间对称性理论,本文构建“可公度降噪—对称性趋势判断—信息结构系稳定性检验”研究模式,判断了淮河流域(HRB)洪涝灾害发生趋势.结果表明:(1)通过可公度降噪处理去除了噪声元素,提高了预测的精确性;(2)运用三元可公度、蝴蝶结构图、信息结构系等方法判断,2019年HRB发生洪涝灾害的信号较强,该年发生洪涝灾害的随机性概率为66.7%,不漏报置信水平为57.1%;(3)通过洪涝灾害与太阳黑子活动的相关性分析可知,HRB在太阳黑子活动谷年附近易发生洪涝灾害,进一步提高了预测结果的可信度.“可公度降噪—对称性趋势判断—信息结构系稳定性检验”研究模式是对现有时间对称性方法的补充和完善,以期为中国灾害预测起到一定的推动作用.It is of great significance for disaster prevention and reduction to accurately judge the occurrence trend of major natural disasters.Based on the theory of time symmetry,this paper establishes the research model of“commensurability noise reduction-symmetry trend judgment-stability test of commensurable structure”,and judges the occurrence trend of flood disaster in Huaihe River Basin(HRB).The results show that:(1)The commensurability noise reduction can remove noise elements and retain commensurable elements.Using the commensurable element for prediction,the prediction results of 2015,2083,2095,2305 and 2308 were removed and only one effective prediction result was retained,the noise reduction improves the accuracy of prediction;(2)By using the methods of ternary commensurability,butterfly structure diagram and commensurable structure,it can be concluded that the signal of HRB flooding disaster in 2019 is stronger.The random probability of flooding disaster in that year is 66.7%,no omission of the confidence level is 57.1%;(3)According to the correlation analysis between flood disaster and sunspot activity,HRB is prone to flood disasters near the sunspot activity valley,which further confirms the credibility of the prediction results.Generally,the research model of“commensurability noise reduction-symmetry trend judgment-stability test of commensurable structure”is a supplement and improvement of the original time symmetry method,which is expected to play a certain role in promoting China's disaster prediction.

关 键 词：对称性 可公度 降噪处理 洪涝灾害 淮河流域 

分 类 号：P316[天文地球—地震学]