基于电取暖设备热力工况的电负荷精准预测模型研究及应用  

Study and application on accurate forecasting model of power load based on thermal conditions of power-heat equipment

作　　者：秦煜 蒋利民 余小玲[2] 郭炳庆 QIN Yu;JIANG Limin;YU Xiaoling;GUO Bingqing(China Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing 100192,China;School of Energy and Power Engineering,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电力科学研究院有限公司,北京100192 [2]西安交通大学能源与动力工程学院,西安710049

出　　处：《电力需求侧管理》2020年第3期8-13,共6页Power Demand Side Management

基　　金：国家电网公司科技项目(5442YD170018)。

摘　　要：随着我国北方地区冬季清洁取暖"煤改电"的大面积推广,对电网的增容改造以及"迎峰度冬"安全运行带来了较大的压力。在总结分析不同类型电取暖设备的基础上,提出了一种基于设备热力工况、建筑类型以及室外气候条件的电取暖负荷精准预测模型;并分别在电网接入、运行调节等典型场景下进行了应用分析。结果表明,该方法在电网投资改造以及优化运行方面有较好的指导作用。The large-scale promotion of"coal to electricity"for clean heating in winter in northern China brings great pressure on the capacity upgrading of power grid and the safe operation in"peak load during winter". Based on the summary and analysis of different types of electric heating equipment, an accurate prediction model of electric heating load based on thermal conditions of equipment, building types and outdoor climate conditions is proposed.And the application analysis is carried out in typical scenarios such as grid access, operation regulation and so on. The results show that this method plays a good guiding role in the investmenttransformation and optimal operation of power grid.

关 键 词：电取暖 热力工况 负荷预测 应用分析 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]