无理由退货政策下的概率销售策略  

Probabilistic selling with money back guarantees

作　　者：毛可 傅科[1] 徐佳焱 MAO Ke;FU Ke;XU Jiayan(Lingnan College,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学岭南学院,广州510275

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2020年第4期964-977,共14页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71671192,71802197)。

摘　　要：本文研究了无理由退货政策下,零售商是否应该提供概率产品,以及概率产品和传统产品应该如何定价的问题.由于消费者会根据对不同产品的期望满意度决定是否购买,零售商需要考虑如何提供最优的概率产品与传统产品的产品组合.本文同时考虑了零售商的销售策略和产品定价决策,发现消费者满意度对零售商的决策有十分重要的影响.特别地,随着消费者满意度的上升,零售商的利润反而有可能会降低.数值分析显示概率产品的随机性和消费者满意率对零售商的概率销售决策和利润有显著影响.We consider a retailer’strategy of selling probabilistic goods under money-back-guarantee return policy.Consumers determine their purchase decisions based on their expected product satisfactions and the provision of the regular and probabilistic goods.Faced with consumers’ differentiated purchasing decisions,the retailer considers how to provide a best portfolio of traditional products and probabilistic goods to maximize its expected profit.We find that consumer satisfaction has a very important impact on the retailer’s optimal strategy on the provision and pricing of probabilistic goods.In particular,an increase of consumer satisfaction may decrease the retailer’s profit.Numerical experiments illustrate that the randomness of the probabilistic product will affect the retailer’s optimal selling decision and profit.

关 键 词：定价决策 概率销售 无理由退货 HOTELLING模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]