巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港集装箱吞吐量预测  

Container throughput forecast of Kikori Port in Papua New Guinea

作　　者：俞灵 徐鹏飞 YU Ling;XU Peng-fei(CCCC Third Harbor Consultants Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200231,China)

机构地区：[1]中交第三航务工程勘察设计院有限公司,上海200231

出　　处：《水运工程》2020年第5期143-147,共5页Port & Waterway Engineering

摘　　要：为评估新建巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港的建设规模,构建由回归分析模型、腹地集装箱运输需求重力模型、多目标港口模糊评价模型和基于Logit模型的港口选择模型4部分组成的综合预测方法。对巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港的腹地集装箱运输需求进行预测;并对腹地省份在不同港口的集装箱运量进行测算,从而科学合理地预测科考瑞港的集装箱吞吐量,为实施项目的必要性提供支持。该预测方法使用较少的基础数据即可比较科学客观地预测新建港口的集装箱吞吐量,能够较好地解决在不发达国家或地区统计资料缺失、安全局势不稳定导致腹地调研困难等情况下的吞吐量预测问题,为海外港口的建设、咨询项目提供帮助。In order to assess construction scale of the new port of Kikori in Papua New Guinea,a comprehensive forecasting method was proposed,consisting of four parts:regression analysis model,gravity model for hinterland container transportation demand,multi-objective fuzzy port evaluation model and port selection model based on Logit model.The container transportation demand in hinterland of Kikori Port in Papua New Guinea was forecasted.The traffic volume of containers generated from hinterland provinces at different ports was measured so that the container throughput of Kikori Port could be forecasted reasonably,which could provide support for assessing the necessity of the new Kikori Port.This method can forecast container throughput at a new port scientifically and objectively on basis of less fundamental data.It is suitable for throughput forecast in extremely underdeveloped country or region,where is short of statistical data and difficult to conduct survey due to security issues.The forecast method can assist with construction and consulting projects of overseas ports.

关 键 词：重力模型 模糊评价模型 LOGIT模型 吞吐量预测 

分 类 号：U651[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]