贵州人口老龄化空间格局演变及环境成因  

Spatial Pattern Evolution and Environmental Causes of Population Aging in Guizhou Province

作　　者：应奎 李旭东[1] 程东亚 YING Kui;LI Xu-dong;CHENG Dong-ya(School of Geography and Environmental Science,Guizhou Normal University,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州师范大学地理与环境科学学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2020年第2期334-345,共12页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41261039)。

摘　　要：人口是一种重要的社会经济资源,老化的人口渐趋成为贵州经济社会可持续发展中不可回避的问题。研究贵州人口老龄化县域差异,可为老龄化问题解决和人口政策合理制定提供科学参考。选取1990、2000和2010年贵州县域老龄系数为人口老龄化指标,采用空间自相关和热点分析、地理加权回归和偏最小二乘法探求人口老龄化变化特征和环境成因。得出如下结论:(1)1990~2010年,贵州省县域老龄系数总体由东北向西南递减,2000年后空间内部组团明显;贵州老龄系数变动大致以贵阳分界,以东老龄系数递增较快,以西递增较慢。(2)贵州老龄人口空间集聚不断增强,区域间差异逐渐扩大;老龄系数低低区域增长显著,同时冷热点空间出现明显扩散与转移。(3)环境成因对人口老龄化影响具有空间差异,总体上降水是促进老龄人口聚集的主要自然因素,地形起伏度和气温对人口老龄化具有负向作用,石漠化的改善对人口老龄化影响由弱变强。Population is an important social and economic resource, and the aging population is gradually becoming an unavoidable problem in the sustainable development of Guizhou’s economy and society. Studying the differences of ageing population in different counties across Guizhou province can provide a scientific reference for the solution of aging problems and the rational formulation of population policies. The age coefficient of Guizhou county during 1990-2010 was selected as the indicator of population aging. The method that we selected to explore the characteristics of population aging and environmental causes were The spatial auto-correlation and hot-spot analysis, geographical weighted regression and partial least squares method. The article draws the following conclusions:(1) During 1990-2010,the age coefficient of the county in Guizhou province generally decreased from northeast to southwest. After 2000, the internal organization of the space was obvious. The change of Guizhou’s ageing coefficient is roughly divided by Guiyang, the east old age coefficient increases rapidly, and the west slowly.(2) The spatial agglomeration of the elderly population in Guizhou province has been continuously enhanced,and the differences between regions have gradually expanded. The age coefficient of low-low area is significant growing, and there is obvious diffusion and transfer of cold hot-spot space.(3) There are spatial differences in the effects of environmental causes on population ageing. Precipitation in general is the main natural factor that promotes the gathering of the elderly population. Degree of terrain and temperature have negative effects on population aging. The influence of the improvement of rock desertification on population aging is becoming more and more stronger.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 空间格局演变 环境成因 地理加权回归 贵州 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]