基于MaxEnt模型荔枝在中国的潜在种植区预测  

Prediction on Potential Planting Area of Litchi chinensis in China by Using MaxEnt Model

作　　者：李宏群[1] 刘晓莉[2] 汪建华[1] 符勇耀 金冬桂 LI Hong-qun;LIU Xiao-li;WANG Jian-hua;FU Yong-yao;JIN Dong-gui(Schoo of Modern Agriculture and Bioenginering,Yangtze Normal University,Chongqing 408100,China;Libary,Yanglze Normal University,Chongqing 408100,China)

机构地区：[1]长江师范学院现代农业与生物工程学院,重庆408100 [2]长江师范学院图书馆,重庆408100

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2020年第2期394-400,共7页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31870515);重庆高校优秀成果转化资助项目(KJZH17132);重庆科委基础研究与前沿探索(cstc2018jcyjAX0557);涪陵区科技计划项目(FLKJ,2018BBB3010)。

摘　　要：荔枝是典型亚热带常绿果树,其果实被称为"水果之王",在国内外水果市场上占有重要的地位。分析荔枝在中国的潜在种植区,为荔枝扩大生产提供科学依据。基于132个分布点和22个环境变量,利用MaxEnt模型模拟荔枝在中国的潜在地理分布并检测其主要影响因子及其阈值。结果表明:MaxEnt模型预测荔枝潜在生境分布的精度高。对预测结果贡献较大的环境因子是最干季度降雨量、全年平均温度、最冷月份最低温、温度季节性变化和最暖季度平均温度,其适宜的取值区间分别为60~110 mm、21℃~24℃、7.5℃~14℃、31℃~37℃和28℃~30℃。适宜分布区域主要在四川的东南、重庆的西南、广西的中南部、广东和福建的沿海地区、海南的北部、台湾的西北部及贵州的西北和西南部分等。中度区域是以上这些高分布值区域的向外扩展。同时,云南中南部分地区、西藏靠近印度边界林芝地区及湖北、湖南、江西及安徽的零星地区也进入该分布值。不同省份适宜区面积由大到小依次为广西>广东>重庆>四川>福建>海南>台湾>云南>贵州;中度适生区依次为云南>广西>四川>广东>贵州>福建>重庆>海南>台湾。以上信息反映出荔枝在我国的潜在地理分布范围,同时,除传统广西、四川、广东、福建、海南、台湾和云南外,贵州和重庆等适生区和中度适生区也是扩大种植区域。Litchi fruit from a typical subtropical evergreen fruit tree, is known as the "king of fruits" and plays important roles in the fruit market at home and abroad. To provide a scientific basis for L. chinens’ expand production its potential planting area was simulated in China by using MaxEnt model under the current conditions based on 132 known coordinates and 22 environmental factors, and then the main influencing factors and threshold were also detected. The accuracy of Maxent model is excellent in predicting its potential planting area, with an AUC value of 0.986 and 0.976 for model training and testing. The main influencing factors were precipitation of driest quarter, annual mean temperature, min temperature of coldest month, temperature seasonality and mean temperature of warmest quarter with thresholds of 60-110 mm、21-24℃、7.5-14℃、31-37℃ and 28-30℃ respectively. The most suitable distribution area for L. chinens was in southeast Sichuan, southwest Chongqing, central and southern Guangxi, coastal areas of Guangdong and Fujian, northern Hainan, northwestern Taiwan, northwestern and southwestern Guizhou, etc. The medium area is the outward expansion of these high distribution areas. Meanwhile, medium distribution area is also found in the south-central region of Yunnan, the Linzhi region of Tibet near the Indian and the scattered areas of Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui Provinces. The suitable areas of different Provinces are as follows: Guangxi > Guangdong > Chongqing > Sichuan > Fujian > Hainan > Taiwan > Yunnan > Guizhou. The moderate suitable areas were Yunnan > Guangxi > Sichuan > Guangdong > Guizhou > Fujian > Chongqing > Hainan > Taiwan. The above information reflects the potential geographical distribution of L. chinens in China. Besides the traditional areas of Guangxi, Sichuan, Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan, Taiwan and Yunnan, suitable and moderate suitable areas such as Guizhou and Chongqing are also expanding planting areas.

关 键 词：荔枝 MaxEnt模型 刀切法 潜在种植区 主要影响因子 

分 类 号：S157.4[农业科学—土壤学]