盐城市空气污染对呼吸系统日门诊量关系的时间序列分析  

A Time Series Analysis of Effects of Air Pollution on Daily Hospital Outpatients with Respiratory Diseases in Yancheng City

作　　者：赵有政 汤权 沈进进[2] 咸月 黄连成[2] ZHAO You-zheng;TANG Quan;SHEN Jin-jin;XIAN Yue;HUANG Lian-cheng(Jiangsu Yancheng Environmental Monitoring Center,Yancheng,Jiangsu 224000,China;Yancheng Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Yancheng,Jiangsu 224000,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省盐城环境监测中心,江苏盐城224000 [2]盐城市疾病预防控制中心,江苏盐城224000

出　　处：《环境监控与预警》2020年第3期43-47,共5页Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning

基　　金：国家科技基础资源调查专项基金资助项目(2017FY101200);江苏省环境监测科研基金资助项目(1906)。

摘　　要：根据盐城市2014-2018年逐日空气污染物监测数据细颗粒物(PM2.5)、可吸入颗粒物(PM10)、二氧化氮(NO2)、二氧化硫(SO2)、臭氧(O3)、气象数据(日平均温度、日平均相对湿度)及市区某三甲综合医院呼吸系统日门诊资料,采用时间序列半参数广义相加模型,以滞后天数最大效应值作为空气污染物对人群呼吸系统日门诊量影响的超额危险度,分析了盐城市空气污染物短期暴露对人群呼吸系统日门诊量的影响。结果表明,2014-2018年盐城市空气PM2.5、PM10、NO2、SO2和O3平均值分别为48.4,81.8,26.3,15.8和111.2 mg/m^3,其中PM2.5、PM10值高于《环境空气质量标准》(GB 3095-2012)二级标准。污染物PM2.5、PM10、NO2、SO2和O3值每升高10 mg/m^3,呼吸系统日门诊量就增加0.52%,0.31%,3.54%,4.36%和0.03%,SO2效应最强。空气污染物的短期暴露影响呼吸系统日门诊量,且存在滞后效应,其中PM2.5、PM10、NO2、SO2影响较大。The data of air pollutants(PM2.5,PM10,NO2,SO2and O3),meteorological data(daily mean temperature,daily mean relative humidity)and daily outpatient visits of respiratory system in a grade A hospital of Yancheng City during 2014-2018 were collected.A time series semi-parametric generalized additive model was used to analyze the relationship between short-term exposure to air pollutants and respiratory hospitalization,and the maximum effect value of lag days was adopted to evaluate the excessive risk of the effect of air pollution on daily outpatient visits of respiratory system.According to the research results,the annual average concentrations of PM2.5,PM10,NO2,SO2 and O3 were 48.4,81.8,26.3,15.8 and 111.2 mg/m^3,respectively.PM10and PM2.5concentrations were higher than national class Ⅱ standard.With an increase of 10 mg/m^3 of PM2.5,PM10,NO2,SO2 and O3,the increase of daily outpatient rate of respiratory system would be 0.52%,0.31%,3.54%,4.36%,and 0.03%,respectively,and SO2 showed strongest effect.The short-term exposure of air pollutants affects the daily outpatient rate of respiratory system,and there are lag effects,of which PM2.5,PM10.NO2 and SO2 have stronger effects.

关 键 词：盐城 空气污染 呼吸系统疾病 时间序列分析 广义相加模型 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程] R122.1[医药卫生—环境卫生学]