缓疫策略执行力与依从性对COVID-19后期疫情及复工影响的模型研究  

Mathematical model reveals the influence of execution and adherence of mitigation strategies on the later period of COVID-19 and resumption of work

作　　者：李倩 唐彪 WU Jianhong 肖燕妮[1] 唐三一[3] LI Qian;TANG Biao;WU Jianhong;XIAO Yanni;TANG Sanyi(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Xi′an Jiaotong University,Xi′an 710049,Shaanxi,China;Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics,Department of Mathematics and Statistics,York University,Toronto M3J1P3,Ontario,Canada;School of Mathematics and Information Science,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi′an 710119,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学数学与统计学院,陕西西安710049 [2]加拿大约克大学数学与统计系工业与应用数学实验室,加拿大安大略M3J1P3 [3]陕西师范大学数学与信息科学学院,陕西西安710119

出　　处：《陕西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第3期1-6,共6页Journal of Shaanxi Normal University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(11631012,61772017)。

摘　　要：新型冠状病毒肺炎(coronavirus disease 2019,COVID-19)疫情形势随着围堵与缓疫策略的强化实施出现积极向好的趋势,但是复工复产、其他国家日趋严重的疫情形势对我国内防扩散、外防输入,确保疫情防控阻击战取得全面胜利的策略带来了严峻挑战。因此,缓疫策略执行力与依从性必将成为影响后期COVID-19疫情发展的关键因素。本文通过构建能够刻画防疫部门执行力与社区或个体依从性的数学模型并融合多源数据,分析执行力和依从性对有效再生数和累积确诊病例的影响,提高人们对缓疫策略决策力和依从性重要作用的认识,服务地区复工复产和疫情防控决策。The epidemic of novel coronavirus(COVID-19)has exhibited the decline trend with the enhanced containment and mitigation strategies.However,the resumption of work and reproduction,and the increasingly serious epidemic situation in other countries have brought severe challenges to face domestic non-proliferation and external input,in order to ensure the success of the prevention and control of the epidemic.Therefore,the execution and compliance of mitigation strategies will become the key factors that affecting the development of COVID-19 epidemic during late epidemic stage.By proposing a mathematical model that can describe the execution of decision makers and compliance of individuals,and integrating multi-source data,the impact of execution and compliance on the effective reproduction number and cumulative confirmed cases is analyzed.This improves people's understanding of the important role of execution and compliance of epidemic mitigation strategies,and serves the decision-making of resumption of work and prevention and control strategies.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒 数学模型 缓疫策略 执行力 依从性 有效再生数 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]