贸易自由化能否促进居民食物消费结构升级--基于GTAP模型的模拟研究  

Would Trade Liberalization Improve Residents’Food Consumption Structure--Based on GTAP Model

作　　者：周玲玲 张恪渝 ZHOU Lingling;ZHANG Keyu

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 [2]北京物资学院经济学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2020年第5期28-41,共14页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“‘一带一路’倡议实施中的物流瓶颈及解决方案研究”(17BGL011)。

摘　　要：本文重点探讨贸易自由化对中国居民食物消费结构升级影响的路径机制。文章运用全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)模拟了四种贸易自由化政策情景的经济效应,并利用AnalyseGE程序解构了进口变动效应,以探究贸易自由化对我国居民食物消费结构升级的影响路径。研究发现:贸易自由化使国际市场的肉制品和奶制品等高附加值食物的价格优势凸显,进口扩张能够有效缓解我国居民食物消费的需求增长与国内有效供给的失衡性矛盾;贸易自由化推动居民食物消费结构的优化升级,改善居民经济福利;贸易自由化对居民食物消费结构升级影响路径的替代效应要远高于收入效应,竞争效应则需要经过长期的产业结构调整来发挥效用。We applied a GTAP model to simulate four policy scenarios of trade liberalization,and then used AnalyseGE program to decompose the effect of changes in import,in order to analyze the evolution mechanism of how trade liberalization affected the upgrade of residents’food consumption structure in China.There are three main findings in this paper.Firstly,the price advantage of pork,eggs,milk and other foods with high nutritional value in the international market is obvious under globalization,and the expansion of import could effectively alleviate the imbalance between high-quality demand of food consumption and domestic supply.Secondly,trade liberalization could promote the upgrade of the residents’food consumption structure and improve their welfare.Lastly,the evolution mechanism of trade liberalization with respect to resident’s food consumption structure,the utility of substitution effect is greater than that of income effect,and the competition effect will play a role only when the industrial structure is adjusted in the long run.

关 键 词：贸易自由化 食物消费结构 GTAP模型 影响路径 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易]