基于微分动力系统的阜阳市天然气能源系统模型研究  

Model study of natural gas energy system in Fuyang City based on differential dynamical system

作　　者：郝云力 杨冰清 吴玲 王茂华 HAO Yunli;YANG Bingqing;WU Ling;WANG Maohua(School of Information Engineering,Fuyang Normal University,Fuyang Anhui 236041,China;School of Management,Suzhou College,Suzhou Anhui 234000,China;School of Mathematics and Statistics,Fuyang Normal University,Fuyang Anhui 236037,China)

机构地区：[1]阜阳师范大学信息工程学院,安徽阜阳236041 [2]宿州学院管理学院,安徽宿州234000 [3]阜阳师范大学数学与统计学院,安徽阜阳236037

出　　处：《阜阳师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第2期6-11,共6页Journal of Fuyang Normal University:Natural Science

基　　金：安徽省教育厅重点项目(SK2019A0813,SK2019A0540)资助。

摘　　要：为对城市天然气能源系统进行研究,本文以城市天然气能源的消费量、天然气价格和城市经济增长为变量建立三维微分方程模型,提出天然气能源强度的概念和计算表达式,并首次定量讨论此系统内部变量间的演化关系.为具体分析该模型,以安徽省阜阳市为例,通过数据回归分析、曲线拟合、神经网络等方法得到模型参数.最后对此系统提出4种监控策略,通过Matlab仿真出每种监控策略的演化图;并对4种策略的各变量和天然气能源强度图做出比较,发现第三种策略(采取适当的行政措施)是目前最有效的行政监控策略.In order to study the urban natural gas energy system,a three-dimensional differential equation model was established based on the variables of urban natural gas energy consumption,natural gas price and urban economic growth,and the concept and calculation expression of natural gas energy intensity(NGI)was proposed.Taking Fuyang city as an example,the model parameters were obtained by data regression analysis,curve fitting,neural network and other methods.Finally,four monitoring strategies are proposed for this system,and the evolution diagram of each monitoring strategy is simulated by matlab.By comparing the variables of the four strategies and the chart of natural gas energy intensity,it is found that the third strategy(taking appropriate administrative measures)is the most effective administrative monitoring strategy at present.

关 键 词：天然气 能源系统 微分方程 天然气强度 数值仿真 

分 类 号：TK019[动力工程及工程热物理]