“亚洲水塔”变化对中国周边地缘政治环境的影响  

The impact of "Asian Water Tower" change on the geopolitical environment around China

作　　者：杜德斌[1,2] 刘承良[1,2] 胡志丁 马亚华[2,3] DU Debin;LIU Chengliang;HU Zhiding;MA Yahua(Instititue for Global Innovation and Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China;Center of Geopolitics and Strategic Studies,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China;School of Business,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学全球创新与发展研究院,上海200062 [2]华东师范大学世界地理与地缘战略研究中心,上海200241 [3]上海师范大学商学院,上海200234

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2020年第2期223-231,共9页World Regional Studies

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项A类(XDA20100311)。

摘　　要：被喻为"亚洲水塔"的青藏高原,是亚洲多条国际大河的发源地。全球气候变暖导致青藏高原冰川消融,进而引起周边河流长期径流的下降和季节分配的紊乱。这一自然变化叠加在流域内国家社会经济快速发展等人文变迁过程之上,造成水资源的供给与需求在总量及时间匹配上的失衡与错位,从而在该地区诱发更多水冲突、水危机等水政治问题。域外大国的介入则进一步加剧了本地区水政治的复杂性,并已在事实上威胁到中国与周边国家的战略互信。未来,中国应以包容互鉴、合作共赢的"丝路精神"为指引,基于既有国际规范,通过多边或双边谈判寻求化解水冲突,促进与相关国家的利益融合及流域国家命运共同体的实现。The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, known as the "Asian Water Tower", is the birthplace of Asian many great rivers. As a result of global warming, there has been a steep increase in uncertainty about glacier ablation and other basin hydrological processes. And the supply-and-demand coupling effect of water resources continues to strengthen with the rapid social and economic development of the surrounding countries. Hence, water crises, water conflicts and other supply-and-demand problems in surrounding countries are becoming more and more prominent.At the same time, the intervention of the great powers outside the region aggravates the complexity of the surrounding geopolitical environment. Building a community of shared future for surrounding countries is the best way to solve the contradiction and conflict of water resources, the key to promoting the construction of the Belt and Road innitiative, and the cornerstone of building the community of shared future for mankind.

关 键 词：“亚洲水塔” 水资源冲突 地缘政治环境 流域国家命运共同体 

分 类 号：K901.4[历史地理—人文地理学]