谁是我们的朋友,谁是我们的“敌人”?--基于联合国投票的中国地缘政治准则研究  

Who are our friends and who are our "enemies"? A quantitative analysis of China’s geopolitical codes based on the UN votes

作　　者：王丰龙[1,2] 司月芳 傅行行[4] 刘云刚 WANG Fenglong;SI Yuefang;FU Xingxing;LIU Yungang(The Center for Modern Chinese City Studies,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China;Institute of Urban Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China;School of Urban&Regional Science,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China;School of Geography,South China Normal University,Guangzhou 510631,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心,上海200062 [2]华东师范大学城市发展研究院,上海200062 [3]华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院,上海200241 [4]南京大学建筑与城市规划学院,南京210093 [5]华南师范大学地理科学学院,广州510631

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2020年第2期252-263,共12页World Regional Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41601144,41371147,41871110);中央高校基本科研业务费项目华东师范大学共享交叉基金(人文社会科学项目)(2019ECNU-GXJC002);城市群系统演化与可持续发展的决策模拟研究北京市重点实验室2019年度开放基金(MCR2019QN01);教育部人文社会科学项目(14YJC790098)。

摘　　要：地缘政治问题是人文地理学新兴的研究热点。但是,已有研究多基于地理环境要素分析国家的地缘环境或定性讨论地缘战略,很少从双边联系角度定量刻画国家间的地缘关系;现有研究的理论基础也比较薄弱。本文基于地缘政治准则理论,运用1971至2017年联合国投票数据和S分值等方法,从中国与其他国家间关系的历史阶段、友好程度和集团归属三个方面定量分析了世界其他国家对中国的友好程度及其地理分布,并针对中美贸易战的背景指出了中国当前的"朋友"和"敌人"。本文进一步运用面板回归模型分析了中国与世界其他各国的非政治双边关系及其发展水平对中国地缘政治准则的影响,论证了地理距离、经济、技术等因素对地缘关系的影响。本文的分析结果对于加强政治地理学的量化分析有启发作用,也能够为中国更好地处理国际关系和制定地缘政治战略提供参考。Geopolitical issues have recently become a hot topic in Chinese human geography.A number of studies have evaluated China’s geopolitical environment and proposed various suggestions for promoting the Belt & Road Initiative, solving the territorial disputes in South and East China Sea, and increasing international influence in the South Asia region. Some scholars have also discussed the disciplinary development and theoretical innovation of Chinese geopolitics. However, extant studies tend to have both methodological and theoretical limitations. On the one hand, with most of the extant studies focusing on evaluation of geopolitical environment or proposal of geopolitical strategies, few studies have examined geopolitical relations based on bilateral or multilateral relational data(despite of several exceptions based on trade data, which is arguably unable to directly reflect geopolitical relations). On the other hand, current studies tend to have weak theoretical foundation. To help narrow this gap, this paper analyzes the geopolitical relations between China and other countries based on the geopolitical codes theory and the UN vote data from 1971 to 2017. Using the S score and cluster analysis methods, we divide the dynamics of China’s geopolitical relations with other countries into three stages and identify the geopolitical communities of China’s "friends" and "enemies" in the recent ten years. We also examine the determinants of S scores between China and other countries using panel regression method and confirms the significant impacts of geographical distance, economic links, natural resource and technology on China’s geopolitical relation with other countries. Echoing the "trade war" between China and the US, we pointed out the current and potential "friends" and "enemies" of China. The findings of this paper may have important implications for both enhancing quantitative research in political geography and making policies to improve China’s international relations and geopolitical security.

关 键 词：地缘政治准则 地缘关系 友好程度 联合国投票 S分值 政治地理 

分 类 号：K901.4[历史地理—人文地理学]