基于GIS的洪涝灾害风险评估及区划——以浙江省为例  

Assessment and Zoning of Flood Disasters Risk Based on GIS:A Case Study of Zhejiang Province

作　　者：吴舒祺 赵文吉[1,2] 王志恒 曹诗颂 屈新原[1,2] 王颖[4] 李善飞 WU Shu-qi;ZHAO Wen-ji;WANG Zhi-heng;CAO Shi-song;QU Xin-yuan;WANG Ying;LI Shan-fei(College of Resources Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048,China;Laboratory of 3D Information Acquisition and Application, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China;School of Geology and Geomatics, Tianjin Institute of Urban Construction, Tianjin 300384,China;Beijing Institute of Geological Survey, Beijing 100195,China;Beijing Engineering Corporation Limited, Beijing 100024,China)

机构地区：[1]首都师范大学资源与旅游学院,北京100048 [2]首都师范大学三维信息获取与应用教育部重点实验室,北京100048 [3]天津城建大学地质与测绘学院,天津300384 [4]北京市地质矿产勘查开发局,北京100195 [5]中国电建集团北京勘测设计研究院

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2020年第6期51-57,共7页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2017YFC1502901)。

摘　　要：以自然灾害风险评估理论和方法为指导,气象数据、基础地理信息数据、社会经济数据为基础数据,构建浙江省洪涝灾害评估指标体系,采用层次分析法及综合法建立洪涝灾害风险评估模型;借助GIS技术,计算浙江省洪涝灾害孕灾环境敏感性、致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性、防灾减灾能力以及综合风险指数,并对浙江省洪涝灾害进行风险区划。采用相关性分析法将浙江省洪涝灾害风险结果与浙江历史洪涝灾情数据进行对比验证,研究结果表明,浙江省洪涝风险分布与洪涝灾情损失的空间分析基本吻合,东部沿海地区及西部部分地区风险性较高,西北地区风险性较低。By using natural disaster risk assessment theory and methods and based on meteorological data,geographic information data and socio-economic data,the index system for evaluation of flood risk in Zhejiang is established.By using the AHP method and weighted synthesis,flood risk evaluation model is worked out.With GIS technology,the sensitivity of the disaster environment,the risk factors of flood disaster,the exposure of disaster bearing body and the ability of disaster prevention and resilience and integrated risk index in Zhejiang are calculated and flood risk in Zhejiang is zoned.By using correlation analysis method,the consequence of flood disasters and historical data of flood disasters in Zhejiang are compared and verified.The results show that the distribution of results of flood risk is basically consistent with spatial distribution of flood disaster losses,the risk in the eastern coastal areas and parts of the west of Zhejiang is higher,while the risk in the northwest of Zhejiang is lower.

关 键 词：洪涝风险评估 风险指数 GIS 层次分析 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]