P2P借贷中出借人非理性决策行为研究  

Irrational Decisions of Lenders in P2P Lending

作　　者：涂艳[1] 王翔宇 TU Yan;WANG Xiang-yu(School of Information, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081, China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学信息学院,北京100081

出　　处：《北京邮电大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第2期106-118,共13页Journal of Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(15YJAZH066)。

摘　　要：由于P2P借贷中信息不对称问题突出,出借人易于作出非理性决策,继而增加交易风险。本研究通过采集拍拍贷的交易数据,基于Logistic回归模型,建立出借人出借意愿模型和借款人违约行为模型,分析对比相关变量对出借意愿和违约行为产生的影响,聚焦剖析了决策变量的理性程度。研究结果发现,出借人存在非理性决策现象,对学生职业等变量易犯第一类错误,对视频认证方式等变量易犯第二类错误。本研究旨在科学甄别关键的非理性决策因素,继而为提升出借人风险识别能力、优化出借人决策、规范借贷平台信息披露机制、完善平台征信体系、降低P2P借贷风险提供现实指导。P2P lending,due to the prominent asymmetric information,lenders are prone to make irrational decisions,which lead to the increase of transaction risks.Through using the valid transaction data from“PPDai”website and based on the Logistic regression model,the lending intention model for lenders and the default behavior model for borrowers are constructed,the influence of related variables on lending intention and default behavior is compared,and the rationality of decision variables is explored in a comprehensive and detailed way.The results indicate that lenders have irrational decision-making phenomena.Lenders tend to make the first type of errors towards variables such as“student occupation”,and commit the second type of errors towards variables such as“video authentication”.Therefore,this research helps to identify the irrational decision variables and further provides guidance for enhancing lenders'abilities of risk identification,optimizing lenders'decision,regulating information revelation mechanism of P2P platform,improving the credit system of P2P platform and reducing credit risk in P2P lending.

关 键 词：P2P借贷 出借人 非理性决策 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]