河南省2018年1月3-4日暴雪天气的诊断分析与数值模拟  

The Snowstorm on January 3-4 of 2018 in Henan: Diagnostic Analysis and Numerical Simulation

作　　者：董俊玲[1,2] 刘超 孟寒冬 Dong Junling;Liu Chao;Meng Handong(CMA Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,Zhengzhou 450003;Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory,Zhengzhou 450003;Henan Provincial Climate Center,Zhengzhou 450003)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州450003 [2]河南省气象台,郑州450003 [3]河南省气候中心,郑州450003

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2020年第16期108-114,共7页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：中国气象局气象预报业务关键技术发展专项“发展多源观测资料快速融合分析技术与强对流天气短时临近预警关键技术”(YBGJXM(2019)02);中国气象局预报员专项“多模式降水检验及基于智能网格的订正技术研究”(CMAYBY2020-079);河南省气象局“基于微气候模型(Phoenics)的城市局地风热环境定量化评估研究——以郑州为例”(KM201810);河南省科学技术协会“应用微气候模型优化建筑物布局的方法研究”(2019HYTP033)。

摘　　要：为进一步探讨河南省暴雪天气过程的成因和机理,分析WRF模式对暴雪过程的模拟效果,提高预报准确率,笔者利用NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料和常规观测资料,对2018年1月3-4日河南省大范围的暴雪天气过程进行诊断分析,并对WRF模式模拟结果进行分析。结果表明,高空槽、低层的切变和急流、地面冷空气是这次暴雪的主要影响系统。水汽条件好,水汽通量低层辐合,高层辐散,伴有较强的上升运动,更有利于暴雪天气的发生。WRF模式模拟的降雪量范围和强度都与实况较为一致,表明模式对暴雪天气的预报有一定的参考价值。The paper aims to discuss the cause and mechanism of snowstorm process in Henan, analyze the simulation effect of WRF model on snowstorm, and improve the forecasting accuracy. Based on NCEP 1° × 1° reanalysis data and conventional observation data, we analyzed the large scale snowstorm process on January 3-4 of 2018 in Henan and the simulation results of WRF model. The results showed that: the upper-level trough,lower-level sheer line and jet stream, and surface cold air were the major system affecting the snowstorm;the favorable water vapor condition, lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence, accompanied by strong ascending motion, were more conductive to the snowstorm. The WRF model could simulate the intensity and range of the snowstorm quite well, indicating that the model has certain reference value for the forecast of snowstorm.

关 键 词：暴雪 水汽通量散度 垂直速度 诊断分析 数值模拟 河南 

分 类 号：P458.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]