中国乳制品出口流量及潜力研究--“一带一路”沿线35个国家的证据  

Research on the Export and Potential of Chinese Dairy Products--Evidence from 35 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative

作　　者：胡峰[1] 黄登峰 向荣[1] 袭讯 HU Feng;HUANG Dengfeng;XIANG Rong;XI Xun

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学全球价值链研究中心,杭州310018

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2020年第5期130-142,共13页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(编号:71773115);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(编号:17YJA630028);浙江省软科学研究计划项目(编号:2016C25013);中国博士后科学基金面上项目(编号:2017M621897)。

摘　　要：本文从出口流量整体角度、产品异质性角度、地区异质性角度对中国乳制品定向出口流量特征展开分析,并借助扩展引力模型对中国乳制品定向出口流量及影响因素进行实证,在此基础上,探析35个沿线国家定向进口潜力。主要结论为沿线国家乳制品产值、国家间距离、汇率与中国定向出口流量呈显著负相关,但中国乳制品产值、沿线国家生产总值等与中国定向出口流量呈现正相关关系;遗憾的是沿线国家人口数量、国家间共同语种、沿线国家人均国内生产总值回归参数并未通过显著性检验;中国乳制品定向出口潜力可分为潜力巨大型、潜力开拓型、潜力再造型,其中潜力巨大型包括柬埔寨、泰国等4个国家,潜力开拓型包括阿富汗、亚美尼亚等23个国家,潜力再造型包括波兰、捷克等11个国家。From the perspective of the overall export value, product heterogeneity, and regional heterogeneity, the characteristics of China’s dairy product directional export volume were analyzed. Based on the extended gravity model, the directional export value and influencing factors of Chinese dairy products were empirically demonstrated. On this basis, the potential importing potential of 35 countries along the route was analyzed. The main conclusionsare as follows: the dairy products of the countries along the route, the distance between countries, and the exchange rate are significantly negatively correlated with China’s targeted exports, but the output value of China’s dairy products and the GDP of the countries along the route have a positive correlation with China’s directional exports. Unfortunately, the regression parameters of population of the countries along the route, common language between countries and per capita gross domestic product of countries along the route do not passed the significant test. The potential export potential of Chinese dairy products can be divided into huge potential, potential development, and potential re-modeling. Among them, there are 4 countries with great potential, such as Cambodia and Thailand.The potential development includes 23 countries including Afghanistan and Armenia. The potential re-modeling includes 11 countries including Poland and Czech.

关 键 词：乳制品 流量特征 出口潜力 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F426.82[经济管理—产业经济]