街头抢劫者前犯罪经历对其后作案地选择的影响  

Impact of prior crime experiences of street robbers on subsequent crime location choices

作　　者：龙冬平 柳林 陈建国[1] 肖露子 宋广文 徐冲 LONG Dongping;LIU Lin;CHEN Jianguo;XIAO Luzi;SONG Guangwen;XU Chong(School of Geographical Science,Center of Geolnformatics for Public Security,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Department of Geography,University of Cincinnati,Cincinnati OH 45221-0131,Ohio,USA)

机构地区：[1]广州大学地理科学学院,公共安全地理信息分析中心,广州510275 [2]辛辛那提大学地理系,美国辛辛那提OH 45221-0131

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2020年第5期815-828,共14页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41901172,41901177,41601138);广东省自然科学基金研究团队项目(2014A-030312010);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41531178);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFB0505500,2018YFB0505503);广州市科学研究计划重点项目(201804020016)。

摘　　要：作案地选择是犯罪地理学的研究主题。已有的重复作案地选择的研究表明,犯罪者"前案件"作案地选择对他们"后案件"作案地选择具有影响,但以往研究关注的是先前的犯罪时间和地点对其后续作案地选择的影响,仍未检验犯罪者在"前案件"中犯罪经历的具体作用。因此,论文以中国东南沿海ZG市为例,利用街头抢劫者的抓捕数据和混合Logit模型,聚焦探析街头抢劫者先前的个体犯罪经历对他们随后的作案地选择的影响。研究发现:街头抢劫者在"前案件"中的犯罪间隔、犯罪出行和当场被捕等个体犯罪经历对其"后案件"作案地选择具有强烈的影响,即"前后案件"的犯罪间隔越临近、"前案件"犯罪出行距离越短,以及"前案件"未当场被捕,则大大增加了街头抢劫者返回到先前抢劫区域再次犯罪的可能性。并通过警察访谈和结合理论分析,发现"前案件"未当场被捕是由犯罪者当场被捕的恐惧感、警察特殊的干预方式,以及社会凝聚力和犯罪防控的相互作用而形成。研究结论可为警务部门的"事前防控"与"主动处置"提供一定的参考。Explaining the choice of crime location is one of the central themes of crime geography.The existing research on the choice of the location where street robbers commit crimes mainly focuses on the following two aspects:analyzing the spatial pattern and influencing factors from a comprehensive perspective,and analyzing the time difference from a comparative perspective.In general,these studies not only enrich the research perspectives,but also clarify the spatiotemporal patterns and their formation mechanisms.Therefore,they have important theoretical and practical significance.The literature also shows that offenders’subsequent crime location choices are affected by their prior crime location choices.However,the published studies have focused on the influences of time and place of a previous crime,and have not yet verified the role of crime experiences of the former offense.Therefore,this study further examined the influence of the prior individual robbery experiences on the subsequent street robbery location choices by using a mixed logit model and data on arrested robbers in ZG City,China.The results suggest that the individual criminal experiences of street robbers such as the interval of crimes,criminal travel,and arrest on the spot have a strong effect on subsequent street robbery location choices,that is,a shorter time interval,a shorter distance of journey to prior crime location,and less possibility of being arrested in the act of a prior street robbery significantly increase the likelihood of a robber returning to the previous location.Finally,through police interviews and theoretical analysis,it is found that the last situation is formed by the offenders’fear of being arrested on the spot,the special ways of police intervention,as well as the social cohesion and crime prevention of communities.Therefore,the extension of the results may well provide references for the police departments’work on prevention and pre-event control and active intervention.

关 键 词：街头抢劫者 犯罪经历 作案地选择 混合Logit模型 犯罪地理学 

分 类 号：D917.3[政治法律—法学]