基于IAHP-DS的流域突发化学品污染事故应急处理技术动态优选体系研究  

Dynamic Optimization System of Emergency Treatment Technology for Sudden Chemical Pollution Accidents in Drainage Basin Based on IAHP-DS

作　　者：罗玉兰 刘颖 陈青松 杜倩颖 程之蕙 LUO Yulan;LIU Ying;CHEN Qingsong;DU Qianying;CHENG Zhihui(Departments of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611731,China;Sichuan Province Environmental Protection Science & Technology Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学地球科学与环境工程学院,四川成都611731 [2]四川省环保科技工程有限责任公司,四川成都610041

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2020年第3期97-103,共7页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51779211,51209178);四川省科技计划项目(2019YJ0233)。

摘　　要：因化学品造成的突发性水污染事故时有发生,为了在最短时间内降低污染物对水环境的影响,如何结合事故现场情况科学高效地选择最适宜的应急处理技术方案是当前应急响应的关键问题。基于改进层次分析法(IAHP)和Dempster-Shafer(D-S)证据理论构建了流域突发化学品污染事故应急处理技术动态优选体系。首先在利用IAHP确定指标权重的过程中,结合D-S证据理论引入专家权重,可客观地综合不同专家的意见,解决专家意见间的冲突性;然后采用加权秩和比(WRSR)法对应急处理技术进行综合评估,最终确定出最佳的应急处理技术方案;最后以浙江建德苯酚水污染事故为案例进行了验证分析,成功筛选出活性炭筑坝拦截技术,与本案例实际采用的应急处理技术方案一致,表明该优选体系具有较强的适用性和可行性,能够快速实现应急处理技术的优选。Sudden chemical water pollution accidents occur frequently.In order to reduce the impact of pollutants on the water environment in the shortest time after the accidents,how to choose the most suitable emergency treatment technology scheme scientifically and efficiently in specific situation is the key issue of emergency response.This paper constructs the dynamic optimization system of emergency treatment technology for sudden chemical pollution accidents in drainage basin based on Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process(IAHP)and Dempster-Shafer(D-S)evidence theory.First,in the process of adopting IAHP to determine the weight of indexes,the weight of experts is introduced by combining D-S evidence theory,which can objectively synthesize the viewpoints of individual experts and solve the conflict among expert viewpoints.Then,the Weighted Rank Sum Ratio(WRSR)method is used to comprehensively evaluate and rank the emergency treatment technology,and the most optimal technology scheme is determined.Finally,the applicability of the established optimization system is verified by a phenol water pollution accident that occurs in Jiande,Zhejiang Province of China,and the activated carbon dam interception technology is successfully screened out,which is consistent with the actual emergency treatment technology adopted in the case study.It shows that the optimization system has sufficient applicability and feasibility,and can quickly rea-lize the optimization of emergency treatment technology.

关 键 词：突发化学品水污染事故 应急处理技术评估 改进的层次分析法(IAHP) D-S证据理论 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]