会计盈余能预测就业与工资増长吗?——来自中国的经验证据  

Can Accounting Earnings Predict Employment and Wage Growth?Empirical Evidence from China

作　　者：卿小权[1] 张碧涵 张伟华[2] 刘金钊[3] Qing Xiaoquan;Zhang Bihan;Zhang Weihua;Liu Jinzhao

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学会计学院 [2]北京工商大学商学院 [3]中国人民大学商学院

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（财务与会计导刊）（理论版）》2019年第3期3-26,共24页FINANCE & ACCOUNTING GUIDE

基　　金：教育部人文社科青年基金项目(项目编号:15YJC630102);国家自然科学青年基金项目(项目编号:71302001)。

摘　　要：从微观层面入手,考察企业加总的会计盈余对未来社会就业及职工工资增长的预测含义。基于2002~2017年的样本数据发现,企业加总的会计盈余变化与未来1~4个季度的失业率显著负相关,与净增就业人数、职工工资增长率显著正相关。特别地,与加总的会计盈余增长对就业及职工工资增长的促进作用相比,会计盈余下降对就业和职工工资增长的抑制作用更为明显。对盈余进行分解发现,管理层主要根据核心盈余变化做出人员增减及工资调整决策,非核心盈余与未来就业及职工工资增长并不显著相关。本研究既拓宽了劳动经济学领域有关“就业及工资增长决定因素”的研究视野,也丰富了“企业会计信息与宏观经济预测”领域的文献,揭示了劳动力市场变化的微观机理。Starting from the micro level,this paper aims to investigate forecast value of the aggregate accounting earnings of enterprises on the future employment and wage growth.Basing on the quarterly accounting data from 2002-2017,it finds that the aggregate accounting earnings growth of companies is negatively related to the unemployment rate in the next one to four quarters,and it has a significant positive correlation with the net increase in employment and the growth rate of labor income.Particularly,comparing with the promoting function of aggregate accounting earnings on employment and wage growth,the declining of aggregate accounting earnings inhibits employment and wage growth more obviously.According to the decomposition of the earnings,it finds that the administrators are mainly based on the change of the core earnings to make the decision of hiring,firing and wage adjustment.The core earnings are significantly related to the future employment and wage growth,while the non-core earnings are not signiiicantly related to that.This study not only broadens the research field of labor economics on’determinants of employment and wage growth’,but also contributes to the literature on enterprise accounting information and macroeconomic forecasting,and reveals the micro mechanism of labor market changes.

关 键 词：会计盈余 失业率 职工工资增长率 净增就业人数 

分 类 号：F27[经济管理—企业管理]