宏观经济不确定性下的自愿盈利预测行为研究  

A Study on the Voluntary Profit Forecasting Behavior of Macroeconomic Uncertainty

作　　者：操巍 谭怡 Cao Wei;Tan Yi

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学会计学院

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（财务与会计导刊）（理论版）》2019年第3期27-37,共11页FINANCE & ACCOUNTING GUIDE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“管理层盈利预测信息披露的偏误动因与监管研究”(项目编号:71302193)的资助。

摘　　要：本文从宏观经济不确定性的角度出发。以2010-2017年自愿披露盈利预测信息的上市公司为样本,将宏观经济信息不确定性与微观企业的预测性会计信息披露行为结合进行实证研究,揭示经济波动对自愿预测信息相关特征的影响,辨别宏观经济不确定性对上市公司自愿预测信息披露策略的影响方式。实证检验结果表明:宏观经济的不确定性程度越高,上市公司自愿发布盈利预测的意愿越低,同时发布频率和准确度也相应降低。另一方面,上市公司在宏观经济不确定增加时,更倾向于自愿向市场发布悲观性预测消息,而投资者对悲观性消息的信任程度也高于乐观或者中性消息。本文将为制定合理的上市公司自愿信息披露制度提供理论依据和经验支持。From the perspective of macroeconomic uncertainty,this paper takes the listed companies that voluntarily disclose profit forecast information in 2010-2017 as a sample,and combines the uncertainty of macroeconomic information with the predictive accounting information disclosure behavior of micro enterprises to reveal empirical research.The impact of economic volatility on the relevant characteristics of voluntary forecasting information,and the way in which macroeconomic uncertainty affects the voluntary disclosure of information disclosure strategies by listed companies.The empirical test results show that the higher the degree of uncertainty in the macro economy,the lower the willingness of listed companies to voluntarily publish profit forecasts,and the lower the frequency and accuracy of publication.On the other hand,listed companies are more inclined to voluntarily release pessimistic forecasts to the market when macroeconomic uncertainty increases,and investors trust trustworthy news more than optimistic or neutral news.This paper will provide theoretical basis and empirical support for the formulation of a reasonable voluntary disclosure system for listed companies.

关 键 词：宏观不确定性 盈利预测 自愿 披露预告策略 

分 类 号：F27[经济管理—企业管理]