基于自利性业绩归因的财务危机预警研究  

Financial Crisis Warning Based on Self-serving Performance Attribution

作　　者：孙蔓莉[1] 刘相雨 韩艳锦 Sun Manli;Liu Xiangyu;Han Yanjin

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学商学院 [2]中金资本运营有限公司

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（财务与会计导刊）（理论版）》2019年第10期87-96,共10页FINANCE & ACCOUNTING GUIDE

基　　金：北京市与中央高校共建双一流大学项目。

摘　　要：本文以2015~2017年间新增的ST企业为研究对象,考察了自利性业绩归因指标是否具有财务危机预警作用及其预警效果。研究发现,管理层自利性业绩归因程度越强,企业陷入财务危机的可能性越高。在引入自利性业绩归因指标后,财务危机预警模型的预测效果得以提高。进一步将业绩归因按内容细化之后发现,销售归因与企业被ST的概率显著正相关,而研发归因与企业被ST的概率显著负相关。This paper examines the financial crisis early warning effect based on self-serving attribution bias by using data of special treated companies from 2015 to 2017.We find that,the stronger the self-serving attribution bias is,the greater likelihood that a company will fall into financial crisis in its later operation.The forecasting effect can be improved when self—serving attribution bias is included in the crisis warning model.In further study,sales related attribution will significantly increase the probability of being ST,while R&D related attribution will significantly reduce the probability of being ST.

关 键 词：财务危机 预警 业绩归因 自利性 

分 类 号：F27[经济管理—企业管理]