基于ARIMA模型预测我国2020年汽车整车及零配件进口情况  

Forecast of China's Automobile and Auto Parts Imports in 2020 Based on ARIMA Model

作　　者：安明明[1] 陶白丁 An Mingming;Tao Baiding(Huali College,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou Guangdong 511325)

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学华立学院,广东广州511325

出　　处：《对外经贸》2020年第6期64-66,70,共4页FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS & TRADE

基　　金：广东省普通高校创新人才类项目“人工智能产业与汽车产业的集聚效应分析--以深圳特区为例”(项目编号:2017WQNCX179)。

摘　　要：我国是汽车消费大国,当前国内自主车辆品牌众多,车型丰富,基本能够满足国内大众的需求。但受消费者需求多样化影响,国内市场上仍然有部分汽车属于整装进口状态;另外,长安福特、东风标致等合资汽车品牌,仍需要进口零配件。利用2009-2019年我国汽车整车及零配件进口数据,通过ADF及二阶差分检验,匹配适合的ARIMA模型,利用ARIMA对2020年我国整车及汽车零配件进口总额进行回归分析。China is a big car consumer.At present,there are many vehicle brands domestic car companies,and there area wide range of vehicle models,which not only meet the basic needs of the domestic public,but also are best-selling brands in some countries,such as BYD's public transportation vehicles of new energy,Haval SUV family cars and so on.However,due to diversified needs of consumers,some cars are still imported in the domestic market.In addition,some cars produced by domestically-owned joint ventures,such as Chang’an Ford and Dongfeng Peugeot,still need imported spare parts to complete their assembly works in domestic.Therefore,On the premise of collecting data on total vehicle and auto parts imports from 2009 to 2019,this paper uses ADF and second-order difference tests to match the appropriate ARIMA model,and applies ARIMA to perform a regression analysis of total vehicle and auto parts imports in 2020.

关 键 词：整车及零配件 进口 ADF检验 ARIMA模型 进口预测 

分 类 号：F740.2[经济管理—国际贸易]