基于效用函数的铁路应急资源可靠性配置方法  

Reliable allocation method of railway emergency resource based on utility function

作　　者：汤兆平[1] 孙剑萍 余时钧 TANG Zhaoping;SUN Jianping;YU Shijun(School of Information Engineering, East China Jiaotong University, Nanchang 330013, China;School of Transportation and Logistics, East China Jiaotong University, Nanchang 330013, China)

机构地区：[1]华东交通大学信息工程学院,南昌330013 [2]华东交通大学交通运输与物流学院,南昌330013

出　　处：《中国科技论文》2020年第6期657-663,共7页China Sciencepaper

基　　金：江西省重点研发计划项目(20192BBG70075);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金资助项目(17YJAZH073)。

摘　　要：针对因突发事件级别不确定而导致所需应急资源数量和应急失效时间不确定的问题,以最大化挽回事故损失量为目标,建立基于效用函数的铁路应急资源配置模型,并采用改进的Monte Carlo方法求解模型。首先,随机产生各应急点的事故级别以确定资源需求量;然后,通过对需求量不断进行随机分配,求出模型在不同事故级别下的最优解;最后,经统计分析得出以一定概率满足不同情况下应急资源需求量的资源配置量。结果表明,基于改进的Monte Carlo方法能更加高效地获得最优解,得出的最优资源配置方案,能在最少资源配置且满足一定安全保障水平的前提下使资源利用率达到最高。Taking the maximum recovery of accident losses as the goal,aiming at the uncertainty of emergency resource demand and emergency expiry time which caused by the uncertainty of emergency level,a static allocation model was established based on utility functionand solved by improved Monte Carlo method.Firstly,the resource demand was determined by the random generated emergency level of each emergency node.Then,the resource demand was continually allocated at random,and the optimal solutions under different emergency levels were solved.The final optimal solution of emergency resource allocation was determined by statistical analysis technique,which would satisfy with the emergency resource demand in a specified probability under deferent conditions.The results show that the improved Monte Carlo method can obtain the optimal solution more efficiently and the resource utilization reaches maximum as the lowest resource allocation guaranteed a specified level of security.

关 键 词：应急资源配置 突发事件级别 改进Monte CARLO方法 效用函数 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]