内蒙古典型草原区NDVI对气候变化的响应  

Response of NDVI to Climate Change in Typical Steppes of Inner Mongolia

作　　者：王雨晴 张成福 李晓鸿[2] WANG Yuqing;ZHANG Chengfu;LI Xiaohong(College of Desert Science and Engineering,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018,China;Electronic and Information Technology College,Hohhot 010011,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古农业大学沙漠治理学院,呼和浩特010018 [2]内蒙古电子信息职业技术学院,呼和浩特010011

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2020年第4期201-205,共5页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：内蒙古农业大学人才引进基金“内蒙古农业大学引进人才科研启动项目”(YJ2014-1)。

摘　　要：气候变化对生态脆弱区的植被影响很大,草原植被极易受气候变化的影响。为了解草原区对气候变化的响应,保护该区植被健康生长,运用多个气候要素(温度、风速、降水)和SPEI指数进行突变分析和趋势分析,利用MODIS NDVI数据和温度、风速、降水及SPEI指数进行相关性研究,通过BP网络模型对NDVI产生响应的气象要素进行了预测。结果表明:19世纪后的典型草原区温度随年份变化有显著增加趋势,风速和SPEI指数有显著减小的趋势,20世纪后的降水有减小的趋势。降水、SPEI与NDVI相关性较高,说明降水量是影响典型草原植被生长的主要气候要素,干旱缺水对植物生长有着重要的影响,由于温度对干旱程度有影响,因此温度也影响着该区植物的生长。BP网络模型模拟2019-2038年温度和降水量与以往年份相比,波动不大且没有发生过大的趋势改变。Climate change has a great impact on vegetation in ecologically fragile areas.Grassland vegetation is extremely vulnerable to climate change.In order to understand the response of grassland areas to climate change and protect the healthy growth of vegetation in this area,multi-climatic factors(temperature,wind speed,precipitation)and SPEI index were used for mutation analysis and trend analysis.MODIS NDVI data and temperature,wind speed,precipitation and SPEI index were used to conduct correlation studies,and the meteorological elements responding to NDVI were predicted by BP network model.The results show that the typical grassland temperature and SPEI index had a significant increase trend after the 19th century,the wind speed had a significant decrease trend,and the precipitation had a decrease trend after the 20th century;precipitation,SPEI and NDVI are all highly correlated,indicating that precipitation is the main climatic factor affecting the growth of typical steppe vegetation;the high correlation between SPEI and NDVI indicates that drought degree and water shortage have an important influence on plant growth;as the degree of drought is mainly affected by the control of temperature,the temperature also affects the growth of plants in this area;the fluctuation of temperature and precipitation in 2019-2038 simulated by the BP network model is not big and is no big trend change compared with those of the previous years.In the following few years,the trend of temperature and precipitation is stable.

关 键 词：气象要素 MODIS NDVI SPEI BP神经网络 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]