修正的GM(1,1)在滑坡变形预测中的应用研究  

A modified GM(1,1) model for landslide deformation prediction

作　　者：豆红磊 程雍 李军伟 杨智军 王景环 Dou Honglei;Cheng Yong;Li Junwei;Yang Zhijun;Wang Jinghuan(College of Civil Engineering and Mechanics,Xiangtan University,Xiangtan 411105,China;Hunan Provincial Engineering Investigation Center Central Laboratory,Loudi 417000,China;Hunan Tianyu Detection Corporation,Loudi 417000,China)

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学,土木工程与力学学院,湖南湘潭411105 [2]湖南省工程勘察院中心实验室,湖南娄底417000 [3]湖南省天宇检测有限公司,湖南娄底417000

出　　处：《工程勘察》2020年第6期47-50,67,共5页Geotechnical Investigation & Surveying

基　　金：湖南省教育厅科学研究项目(17C1537);岩土力学与工程安全湖南省重点实验室项目(16GES10)

摘　　要：针对传统灰色GM (1,1)在预测过程中,易受到周围环境因素的影响导致预测精度不高的问题,提出一种同时修正迭代初始值及背景值的GM (1,1)模型。首先基于灰色理论建模机理,迭代初始值选取x(1)(k)进行优化,消除建模过程中由x(1)(1)引起的扰动误差。其次采用复化Simpson积分公式对背景值进行构造,建立迭代初始值与背景值同时修正的GM (1,1)模型。最后依托工程实例进行研究分析,结果表明:同时修正迭代初始值及背景值的GM (1,1)模型精度优于传统模型,滑坡监测点预测值与监测值变形趋势一致。Aiming at the problem that the traditional gray GM( 1,1) is vulnerable to the influence of surrounding environmental factors and the prediction accuracy is not high,a GM( 1,1) model which simultaneously corrects the initial value of the iteration and the background value is proposed. Firstly,based on the grey theory modeling,the iterative initial value is selected by x( 1)( k) to optimize the disturbance error caused by x( 1)( 1) in the modeling process. Secondly, the background value is constructed by using the complex Simpson integral formula,and a modified GM( 1,1) model with the initial value of the iteration and the background value is established. Finally,relying on the research and analysis of engineering examples,the results show that the accuracy of the modified GM( 1,1) model is better than the traditional model,and the obtained predicted value of the landslide monitoring point is consistent with the deformation trend of the monitored value.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 滑坡 复化Simpson 变形监测 预测 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]