超强台风“利奇马”登陆前后多模式降水预报评估对比分析  

Comparative analysis of multi-model precipitation forecast and evaluation before and after the landfall of Typhoon“Lekima”

作　　者：许娈 余贞寿 邱金晶 黎玥君 吴梦雯 XU Luan;YU Zhenshou;QIU Jinjing;LI Yuejun;WU Mengwen(Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Hangzhou 310008,China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省气象科学研究所,杭州310008 [2]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《气象科学》2020年第3期303-314,共12页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：华东区域气象科技协同创新基金合作项目(QYHZ201611,QYHZ201805);浙江省科技厅重点项目(2017C03035);浙江省气象科技计划项目(2013ZD01-6,2017ZD05);中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2018LASW-B05);国家科技支撑计划(2015BAC03B04)。

摘　　要：利用欧洲中期天气预报中心全球模式(ECMWF)、美国全球预报系统(GFS)、中国气象局全球区域一体化同化预报系统-全球数值预报系统(GRAPES_GFS)、上海区域中尺度数值预报业务系统(SMSWARMS)、以及浙江省中尺度数值预报业务系统(ZJWARMS)和浙江省快速更新同化预报系统(ZJWARRS)降水预报资料,开展了各模式对超强台风"利奇马"登陆前后浙江省强降水的预报性能检验评估。结果表明:(1)过程降水预报方面,ECMWF对降水落区预报表现最佳,但对降水极值中心强度的预报技巧较低;3个区域模式各有优势,其中ZJWARRS和ZJWARMS对登陆点附近及浙西北强降水落区、强度的预报均与实况一致,SMSWARMS对几个强降水落区的预报也表现较好,但雨强偏弱。(2)对逐日降水预报技巧上,登陆前全球模式ECMWF、GFS评分较高,而临近登陆及登陆后区域模式表现较好;其中SMSWARMS、ZJWARRS和ZJWARMS在预报时效12 h内的大暴雨及特大暴雨的预报上有较大优势,尤其ZJWARRS对0~3 h大暴雨的预报技巧表现最为突出。(3)对强降水致灾地区(永嘉、临海、临安)的短时降水预报方面,ZJWARMS无论在落区还是强度预报方面均表现较好,ZJWARRS与之接近,对多个降水中心的预报方面可互为补充;SMSWARMS对降水中心的预报往往存在位置偏差且雨强显著偏弱;全球模式对致灾强降水的短临预报参考价值较低。(4)各模式对850 hPa水汽通量及辐合区的预报差异较大是导致"利奇马"预报降水差异显著的重要原因。对于浙江省级区域来说,ZJWARRS及ZJWARMS在强降水落区及强度的短临预报方面有显著优势。Based on the forecast data from ECMWF,GFS,GRAPES_GFS,SMSWARMS,ZJWARMS and ZJWARRS,this paper verifies the forecast skills of the six models on the heavy rainfall occurred before,during and after the landfall of Typhoon“Lekima”(1909).Results show as follows:(1)For the 72 h rainfall,ECMWF has the best performance on heavy rainfall location prediction,but shows less skill on the intensity forecast.Three regional models have their own advantages respectively.ZJWARRS and ZJWARMS provide fairly precise forecasts on the torrential rainfall over landfalling site and the northwest of Zhejiang Province.SMSWARMS has good performance on rainfall location prediction as well,but the rainfall intensity is much lower than that obtained from observation.(2)In the case of daily 24 h precipitation,ECMWF and GFS get higher skill scores before the landfall of“Lekima”,while regional models exceed in the subsequent period.SMSWARMS,ZJWARRS and ZJWARMS have great advantage in the forecast of heavy downpour and extraordinary heavy rainfall within the lead time of 12 hours,in particular,ZJWARRS shows outstanding skills in the 0—3 h heavy downpour prediction.(3)As to the precipitation forecast over the flooded area(Yongjia,Linhai and Lin an),ZJWARMS shows the best skills on both rainfall location and amount,and ZJWARRS puts forward complementary forecasts to ZJWARMS.There are location and intensity biases in the prediction from SMSWARMS data,and global models forecasts are of no much value as a reference in operational services.(4)Diagnosis of multi-meteorological elements using forecast data from five models indicates that the main reason for the great discrepancy in the torrential rain forecast before,during and after the landfall of“Lekima”results from the differences of moisture flux distribution and its convergence.For the provincial area of Zhejiang,ZJWARRS and ZJWARMS have great advantages over other models in the short-term heavy rainfall forecast.

关 键 词：多模式 台风降水 预报评估 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]