近岸溢油漂移扩散预测方法研究——以胶州湾溢油事件为例  

Study on the forecast method of offshore oil spill drift and diffusion:An example of oil spill in Jiaozhou Bay

作　　者：高志刚[1,2] 李程[2] 李欢[2] 王国松[2] GAO Zhigang;LI Cheng;LI Huan;WANG Guosong(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;National Marine Data and Information Service,Tianjin 300171,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津300072 [2]国家海洋信息中心,天津300171

出　　处：《海洋通报》2020年第2期272-280,共9页Marine Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2014BAB12B02);国家重点研发计划(2016YFC1402610)。

摘　　要：近些年,由于中国经济的高速发展,原油需求逐年增长,同时海上溢油事故发生的风险也在加剧。海上溢油会严重破坏海洋环境,危害我国经济发展,加强溢油漂移扩散预报研究能够为海上溢油应急响应提供技术支撑。因此,国家海洋信息中心研发了海上突发事件应急一体化预测预警系统。该系统基于GIS平台研发,能够在二维电子海图基础上叠加相关的海洋环境动力要素信息,模拟溢油扩散和漂移态势,同时计算剩余油量,估算溢油面积以及岸线吸附程度等。2013年11月22日,山东黄岛发生输油管道爆炸事故,造成大量原油溢入胶州湾。本文利用该系统结合高分辨率大气模型WRF的三重嵌套技术和海流模型SELFE的非结构化网格加密技术,对事故溢油漂移扩散开展了预测工作。预测结果显示,油污受胶州湾内往复流的影响极大,72 h后,胶州湾内外大部分海域都将存在油污,主要集中在黄岛沿岸海域、团岛及浮山湾附近,预测扫海面积为70.32 km^2。经海事部门高分辨率卫星观测结果印证,系统模拟的溢油分布较为合理。该系统的业务化应用为相关海上溢油污染应急工作提供了一定理论依据和参考。With the rapid economic development in recent years,the demand for crude oil is increasing year by year in China,leading to high risk of marine oil spill.Marine oil spill has deep effect both on the local marine ecosystem and national economic development.The study on the forecast and early warning technology of marine oil spill are crucial to provide technical support for oil spill emergency response.Therefore,the Integrated Marine Emergency Forecast and Early Warning System(IMEFEWS)has been developed by National Marine Data and Information Service(NMDIS).Based on GIS platform,the IMEFEWS can superimpose the marine dynamical information on the basis of two-dimensional electronic chart,simulate the oil spill diffusion and drift,calculate the remaining oil amount,and estimate the oil spill area and the degree of coastline adsorption,etc.A major oil spill incident occurred on 22th November 2013 in Jiaozhou Bay,caused by a rupture and subsequent explosion of a crude oil pipeline.Combined with the triple-nested technique of high resolution atmospheric model WRF and the unstructured-grid refinement technique of ocean model SELFE,the IMEFEWS was applied to forecast the drift and diffusion processes of′11·22′Jiaozhou Bay oil spill.The forecast results showed that the drift and diffusion of oil spill are greatly influenced by reversing currents in Jiaozhou Bay,and after 72 hours the oil pollution distributed throughout Huangdao and the areas near Tuandao and Fushan Bay,contaminating an area of 70.32 km^2.The high resolution satellite observation from maritime department has confirmed the reliability of forecast oil spill distribution.This operational application of the system can provide some theoretical basis and reference for marine oil spill emergency response.

关 键 词：溢油污染 数值模拟 WRF SELFE 扩散预测 

分 类 号：P731.2[天文地球—海洋科学] X55[环境科学与工程—环境工程]