基于贝叶斯网络的船舶污染事故应急预案完备性评估  

Evaluation method based on Bayesian network for completeness of emergency plan of ship pollution accident

作　　者：王思琦 张志明 郑彭军[1,2,3,4] WANG Siqi;ZHANG Zhiming;ZHENG Pengjun(Faculty of Maritime and Transportation,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315832,China;Ningbo Collaborative Innovation Center for Port and Shipping Services System,Ningbo 315832,China;National Traffic Management Engineering&Technology Research Center Ningbo University Sub-center,Ningbo 315832,China;Jiangsu Province Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Urban Traffic Technologies,Nanjing 210096,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学海运学院,浙江宁波315832 [2]宁波港航物流服务体系协同创新中心,浙江宁波315832 [3]国家道路交通管理工程技术研究中心宁波大学分中心,浙江宁波315832 [4]现代城市交通技术江苏高校协同创新中心,江苏南京210096

出　　处：《宁波大学学报（理工版）》2020年第4期97-102,共6页Journal of Ningbo University：Natural Science and Engineering Edition

基　　金：国家重点研发计划政府间国合重点专项(2017YFE9134700);欧盟地平线2020项目(690713).

摘　　要：根据船舶污染事故应急预案涉及的事件和事件之间的逻辑关系构架了应急预案的故障树结构,将故障树结构贝叶斯网络化,构建了标准贝叶斯网络图,由此建立一种船舶污染事故应急预案完备性评估的新方法.利用该方法对市级船舶污染事故应急预案的缺失事件进行了分析,评估了预案的完备度,并与其他评估方法进行比较,验证了该方法有效.The fault tree structure of the emergency plan is structured according to the events involved in the ship pollution accident emergency plan and the logical relationship between the incidents.The fault tree structure is transformed into a Bayesian network,in which a standard Bayesian network diagram is constructed,and a new method for assessing the completeness of emergency plans for ship pollution accidents is proposed.The method is used to analyze the missing events of the emergency plan for ship pollution accidents taking place in cities,and to evaluate the completeness of the plan,as well as to compare it with other evaluation methods,with the effectiveness of the proposed method being verified.

关 键 词：船舶污染 应急预案 故障树分析法 贝叶斯网络 完备度评估模型 

分 类 号：U698.2[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]