河北省梨果价格波动规律及影响因素分析  

Analysis on Influencing Factors of Pear Fruit Price Fluctuation in Hebei Province

作　　者：宋占宝 王聪聪[2] 池桂杰 张宏伟 张宇明 杜晓东[5] SONH Zhan-bao;WANG Cong-cong;CHI Gui-jie;ZHANG Hong-wei;ZHANG Yu-ming;DU XIAO-dong(Pingquan Agricultural and Rural Bureau of Hebei Province,Chengde Hebei 067000,China;School of Economics and Management,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding Hebei 071000,China;Chengde Agricultural Economic Crop Management Station,Chengde Hebei 067000,China;Hebei Cold Resistant Apple Industry Technology Innovation Center,Chengde Hebei 067000,China;Agricultural Information and Economic Research Institute,Hebei Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences,Shijiazhuang 050051,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省平泉市农业农村局,河北承德067000 [2]河北农业大学经济管理学院,河北保定071000 [3]河北省承德市农业经济作物管理站,河北承德067000 [4]河北省抗寒苹果产业技术创新中心,河北承德067000 [5]河北省农林科学院农业信息与经济研究所,石家庄050051

出　　处：《北方果树》2020年第4期1-3,9,共4页Northern Fruits

基　　金：河北省水果现代农业产业技术体系产业经济研究室(HBCT2018100301);河北省农林科学院创新工程项目(2019-4-9-5)。

摘　　要：利用河北省梨果历年价格数据,建立多元线性回归模型,对梨果价格的影响因素进行相关性检验。结果表明:当其他因素不变时,河北省农业生产成本每增加1%,梨果价格上涨0.512%;梨果产量每增加1%,梨果价格下降1.064%;城镇居民可支配收入水平每增加1%,梨果价格上升0.327%。Based on the price data of pear fruits in Hebei Province over the years,a multivariate linear regression model was established to test the correlation among the factors affecting the price of pear fruits.It was concluded that when other factors remained unchanged,the cost of agricultural production in Hebei Province increased by 1%,the price of pear fruits increased by 0.512%,the price of pear fruits decreased by 1.064%for 1%increase in pear yield.For 1%increase in the level of disposable income,the price of pear and fruit increased by 0.327%.Based on this,the factors affecting the price of pear and fruit were analyzed.

关 键 词：梨果 价格波动 多元线性回归分析 

分 类 号：S661.2[农业科学—果树学]