非常规突发事件的情景构建与演化分析  

Scenario Construction and Evolution Analysis of Unconventional Emergencies

作　　者：于超 邬开俊[1] 张梦媛 王铁君[2] YU Chao;WU Kai-jun;ZHANG Meng-yuan;WANG Tie-jun(School of Electronic and Information Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;School of Mathematics and Computer Science Institute,Northwest University for Nationalities,Lanzhou 730030,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学电子与信息工程学院,兰州730070 [2]西北民族大学数学与计算机科学学院,兰州730030

出　　处：《兰州交通大学学报》2020年第3期39-46,共8页Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(15CGL001)。

摘　　要：为了解决非常规突发事件情景演化分析过程中信息的不确定性和不完全问题,运用动态贝叶斯网络模型的理论知识,构建非常规突发事件的情景演化模型.首先,在情景构建的基础上,计算专家评分的加权平均值,以提高数据的准确性.其次,通过动态贝叶斯网络模型的数值计算和模拟仿真进行情景演化研究.最后,以简化后的兰州石化管道泄露致水污染事件为例,实现了情景演化的可视化仿真,验证了模型的可行性.仿真实验结果表明,计算结果符合实际事件演化的实际情况.In order to solve the problem of information uncertainty and incompleteness in the analysis of unconventional emergency scenarios,the theoretical knowledge of the dynamic Bayesian network model is used to construct the scenario evolution model of unconventional emergency.In the scenario evolution model,first,based on the scenario construction,a weighted average of expert ratings is calculated to improve the accuracy of the data.Secondly,the numerical evolution and simulation of the dynamic Bayesian network model are used to study the scenario evolution.Finally,taking the simplified Lanzhou water pollution incident caused by the petrochemical pipeline leakage as an example,a visual simulation of scenario evolution is implemented to verify the feasibility of the model.The experimental results show that the calculation results are consistent with the actual situation of the actual event evolution.

关 键 词：非常规突发事件 动态贝叶斯网络 情景演化 情景构建 

分 类 号：P315.69[天文地球—地震学]