基于突变理论的飞行签派员人因差错风险耦合演化研究  

Identification and determination of the human error risk coupling evolution of the flight dispatcher based on the catastrophe theory

作　　者：肖琴[1] 罗帆[1] 朱本林 XIAO Qin;LUO Fan;ZHU Ben-lin(School of Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;Operation Control Department,China Eastern Airlines Wuhan Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430000,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学管理学院,武汉430070 [2]中国东方航空武汉有限责任公司运行控制部,武汉430000

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2020年第2期610-617,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71271163);教育部人文社科基金项目(18YJA630076)。

摘　　要：为了有效预防飞行签派员人因差错带来的航空安全问题,从内、外因素方面分析了飞行签派员人因差错风险因素,构建了基于尖点突变理论的风险耦合模型,计算了人因差错风险的耦合度,分析了飞行签派员人因差错风险在内、外因素作用下的演化过程;考虑随机扰动因子对人因差错风险的影响,对传统尖点突变模型进行改善,并计算了随机扰动因子的取值范围。结果表明:飞行签派员人因差错风险的耦合度为0. 883 2,处于强耦合度区间;当内、外因素的耦合作用强度均增加时,人因差错风险会发生突变;尖点突变模型中随机扰动因子的取值范围为(-0. 757 3,-0. 739 3)。This paper is aimed at searching for and determining the coupling evolution mechanism of human error risk factors for the flight dispatchers and perfecting the specific preventive measures so as to solve and/or at least to minimize the aviation safety errors to be caused by the flight dispatchers.For this purpose,the paper has first of all built up a hierarchical structure chart of the risk factors,including the internal and external factors due to the human errors of the flight dispatchers.And,secondly,we have built up a risk coupling model to calculate and assess the coupling degrees of the human error risks and analyze the evolutionary process of the flight dispatchers of the human-made errors in combination with the risk factor coupling mechanism.And,thirdly,taking into account the effects of the random disturbance factors on the dispatcher human errors,we have made necessary improvements of the traditional cusp catastrophic model in combination with enough attention to be paid to the random disturbance factor range.Thus,the results of our risk coupling evolution demonstrate that the coupling degree values of the human error,both of the internal and external factors tend to account for 0.8832,0.7369,0.7483,respectively,which are all within the range of strong coupling.Moreover,if the internal factors coupling strength is low and constant,the increase of the external factor coupling strength may not lead to any mutation of the human error risks.But,on the contrary,if the coupling strength of the internal factors is strong and constant,the increase of the coupling strength of the external factors would be quite likely to lead to the mutation of human error risks.And,if so,it would often be a chance to increase the coupling degree both of the internal and external risk factors to lead to the mutation of human error risks.And,the range of the random perturbation factor in the cusp mutation model should be lying in between-0.7573 and-0.7393.Thus,it can be seen that the given study has to be in a position to enrich

关 键 词：安全管理工程 飞行签派员 人因差错 耦合度 尖点突变 风险演化 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]