基于新增确诊数据和光滑算子对FUDAN-CCDC模型反演算法的改进  

An Improvement of the Inversion Algorithm in the FUDAN-CCDC Model Based on the Increment of Confirmed Cases and a Smoother

作　　者：邵年 严阅 罗心悦 薛弋韬 程晋[1,4] 陈文斌 SHAO Nian;YAN Yue;LUO Xinyue;XUE Yitao;CHENG Jin;CHEN Wenbin(School of Mathematical Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;School of Mathematics,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China;Shanghai Nanyang Model High School,Shanghai 200032,China;Shanghai Key Laboratory for Contemporary Applied Mathematics,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学数学科学学院,上海200433 [2]上海财经大学数学学院,上海200433 [3]上海市南洋模范中学,上海200032 [4]上海市现代应用数学重点实验室,上海200433

出　　处：《数学建模及其应用》2020年第2期13-19,F0002,F0003,共9页Mathematical Modeling and Its Applications

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(11671098,91630309);111计划(B08018);上海科学研究项目(19JC1420101)资助;国家自然科学基金(11971121)资助。

摘　　要：2019年12月,新型冠状病毒肺炎(Corona-Virus-Disease,COVID-19)的疫情被人们识别认知,全世界都开始重视这个疫情.截至2020年4月21日24时,全球已累计确诊2568603例.科学地预测疫情发展趋势对疫情防控至关重要.FUDAN-CCDC模型用于国内疫情的预测产生了很好的效果,但是在用于欧美国家的疫情分析预测时效果不是很理想.本文对FUDAN-CCDC模型的优化目标进行了改进,考虑了新增数据的拟合,并考虑了欧美疫情数据的周末现象,提出对数据进行光滑预处理.新加入的两种可能的反演优化目标的改变,会对零增时间有较大的影响.在此基础上进一步发展的算法,可以得到更好的拟合和预测效果.In December 2019,the epidemic of COVID-19 was recognized by people,and the world began to pay attention to it.As of 24:00 on April 21,2020,there have been 2568603 confirmed cases in the world.Scientific prediction of the trend of the epidemic is very important for its prevention and control.The FUDAN-CCDC model has been well analyzing and predicting the epidemic situation in China,but its performance is not so good in fitting the data for European countries and the U.S.In this paper,the objective function in the optimization problem is improved by considering fitting the increment of confirmed cases,and preprocessing the data through a smoother,which is constructed from the"weekend effect"in the data.These two possible ways of improvement will have a great impact on estimating the time of zero increment.Based on the improvement,further developed algorithms will give better fitting results and predictions.

关 键 词：COVID-19 FUDAN-CCDC模型 新增确诊 光滑算子 武汉模式和意大利模式 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]