武汉城市化与空气污染关系的动态计量分析  

Dynamic Quantitative Analysis of the Relationship Between Urbanization and Air Pollution in Wuhan

作　　者：林晶羽 LIN Jing-yu(Ningbo Polytechnic,Ningbo 315800 China)

机构地区：[1]宁波职业技术学院,浙江宁波315800

出　　处：《科技创新与生产力》2020年第7期20-25,共6页Sci-tech Innovation and Productivity

基　　金：浙江省高校重大人文社科攻关计划项目(2018QN035)。

摘　　要：利用熵值法对武汉市1996-2013年城市化综合水平和空气环境综合质量进行测度,进而在Eviews8.0中应用协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应分析以及方差分解模型对武汉市城市化与空气质量之间的关系进行计量分析。结果表明:武汉城市化呈快速增长的态势,空气环境综合质量表现为波动中上升,空气环境质量总体上出现好转,空气环境压力缓慢上升,空气环境抗逆能力则不断加强。城市化综合水平是空气环境综合质量、空气环境压力的Granger原因,与空气环境质量互不为Granger因果关系,而空气环境抗逆能力则是城市化综合水平的Granger原因。城市化的快速推进会对空气环境产生胁迫,通过采取积极的政策措施,空气环境抗逆能力不断增强,空气环境综合质量会得到改善,进一步促进城市化的发展。The entropy method is used to measure the comprehensive level of urbanization and the comprehensive quality of air environment in Wuhan from 1996 to 2013,and then the relationship between urbanization and air quality in Wuhan is quantitatively analyzed by using co-integration test,Granger causality test,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition model in Eviews8.0.The results show that the urbanization of Wuhan is growing rapidly,the comprehensive quality of air environment presents increasing trend in fluctuation,the quality of air environment is generally getting better,the pressure of air environment is increasing slowly,and the ability of resisting adversity of air environment is continuously strengthened.The comprehensive level of urbanization is the Granger cause of the comprehensive quality and pressure of the air environment,but there is no Granger causality between the comprehensive level of urbanization and the quality of the air environment,while the ability of resisting adversity of the air environment is the Granger cause of the comprehensive level of urbanization.The rapid development of urbanization will have a threat to the air environment.Through the adoption of positive policy measures,the ability of resisting adversity of the air environment will be continuously enhanced,and the comprehensive quality of the air environment will be improved,which will further promote the development of urbanization.

关 键 词：城市化 空气环境 脉冲响应分析 方差分解 武汉 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]