基于灰色预测模型的广东省农产品物流需求预测  

Demand Forecast of Agricultural Products Logistics in Guangdong Province Based on the Grey Forecasting Model

作　　者：曾苑[1] 方艳[1] ZENG Yuan;FANG Yan(School of Business Administration,Heyuan Polytechnic,Heyuan 517000,China)

机构地区：[1]河源职业技术学院工商管理学院,广东河源517000

出　　处：《山西经济管理干部学院学报》2020年第2期44-48,共5页Journal of Shanxi Institute of Economic Management

基　　金：2018年广东省教育厅普通高校青年创新人才项目“乡村振兴战略下欠发达地区农村物流发展路径研究——以粤北山区为例”(2018GWQNCX122);2019年中国物流学会课题“广东省农产品物流发展影响因素及需求研究”(2019CSKLT3-176);2018年河源职业技术学院哲学社会科学重点课题“‘互联网+’背景下河源市特色农产品物流模式研究”(2018SK01)。

摘　　要：农产品物流是保障农业产业现代化发展的关键。为研究广东省农产品物流未来的发展趋势,根据广东省农产品物流发展趋势,选用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对广东省农产品物流需求进行预测,并进行精度的检验。实证结果表明GM(1,1)模型适合用来预测广东省农产品物流需求,并在此基础上完成对广东省未来7年农产品物流需求量预测,以期能为政府部门制订物流发展规划提供参考。Agricultural product logistics is the key to guarantee the modernization of agricultural industry. In order to study the future development trend of agricultural product logistics in Guangdong Province,according to the development trend of agricultural product logistics in Guangdong Province,the grey forecasting model GM( 1,1) is used to forecast the demand of agricultural products logistics in Guangdong Province,and the accuracy is tested.The empirical results show that the GM( 1,1) model is suitable for forecasting the demand of agricultural products logistics in Guangdong Province,and on this basis,the demand forecast of agricultural products logistics in Guangdong Province in the next 7 years is completed,so as to provide reference for the government departments in logistics development planning.

关 键 词：GM(1 1) 广东省 农产品物流 需求预测 

分 类 号：F259.27[经济管理—国民经济]