考虑消费者有限理性行为的智能产品订购策略  

Ordering Strategy for Intelligent Products Considering Consumer Bounded Rationality

作　　者：段永瑞[1] 刘歌 DU AN Yongrui;LIU Ge(School of Economics and Management,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《工业工程与管理》2020年第3期19-26,33,共9页Industrial Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71771179,71371139,71532015)。

摘　　要：消费者的追随行为使消费者更偏好在清仓阶段购买,而感知偏差会使消费者更愿意在正常销售阶段购买。本文同时考虑追随性消费行为和可得性感知偏差对消费者决策的影响,研究了具有网络外部性的智能产品的订购策略。构建了两期决策模型并证明了模型解的存在性,对最优解随参数的变化进行了分析。研究发现:总需求规模与消费者感知的产品满足率无关;最优订购量和最优利润随消费者感知偏差程度递增,随消费者追随性递减;当消费者对产品估值的变化范围较大时,企业应采用两阶段销售策略,反之则应采用低价策略;通过与短视型消费者对比发现,消费者追随行为和感知偏差降低了企业的潜在利润。The followers prefer to buy in the clearance period,while availability misperception motivates consumers to purchase in the regular selling period.Considering the impact of consumers’ sensitivity to product scarcity and misperception of product availability on consumers’ decision-making,the ordering strategies of intelligent products with network externalities were analyzed.Firstly,a twostage decision model was proposed,then the existence of the optimal solution was proved,and how the optimal solution changes along with the parameters was analyzed. The main results are as follows:firstly,consumers’ perceived fill rate has no effect on the total demand scale;secondly,the two-stage marketing strategy would be adopted when the range of consumers’ valuation is relatively wide,otherwise the low-price strategy is preferred;moreover,the optimal ordering quantity and the optimal profit increase with the degree of the consumer’s availability misperception and decrease with the consumer’s sensitivity to the product scarcity;finally,compared with the case of myopicconsumers,the firmsuffers a loss due to the bounded rationality.

关 键 词：订购决策 有限理性 网络外部性 感知偏差 智能产品 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理]