基于累积前景理论的组合出行交通分配模型  

Traffic Assignment Model with Combined Modes Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

作　　者：张雪妍 贺锋 ZHANG Xueyan;HE Feng(Institute of National Defense Engineering, PLA Academy of Military Science, Beijing 100091, China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军军事科学院国防工程研究院,北京100091

出　　处：《郑州大学学报（工学版）》2020年第3期91-96,共6页Journal of Zhengzhou University（Engineering Science）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61703351)。

摘　　要：城市交通网络是包含多种交通方式的不确定性复杂系统,出行者作为交通网络的直接参与者,对交通方式和路径的选择行为将直接影响交通网络的均衡状态。以累积前景理论为基础,在随机交通网络中,考虑出行者的观测误差和风险决策行为,分析了组合出行下的随机用户均衡条件,并建立了相应的变分不等式模型,根据变分不等式定理,分析了模型的等价性和解的存在性,采用基于路径的相继平均算法对问题进行求解。引入超级网络作为算例,对模型进行了验证,并对模型参数进行了敏感度分析。计算结果表明:基于累积前景理论的组合出行交通分配模型,能够更加有效地刻画出行者在不确定交通环境下的交通方式和换乘站点的选择行为,为城市交通方式划分和换乘站点选址等工作提供理论支持。The urban transportation network was an uncertain complex system with multiple traffic modes.Being the direct participants,travelers made choices of traffic modes and travel paths,which could affect the equilibrium state of transportation network.Based on cumulative prospect theory,travelers’perceived errors and risk-decision behavior were considered in the stochastic transportation network.The stochastic user equilibrium condition with combined modes were analyzed and the corresponding variational inequality model was proposed,and the equivalence of model and the existence of solutions were also analyzed.A path-based method of successive average algorithm was used to solve this problem.A super network was introduced as the example network to verify the proposed model and sensitive analysis of the input parameters was made.The results showed that,based on cumulative prospect theory,the traffic assignment model with combined modes could more effectively describe the travelers’choosing behaviors of traffic modes and transfer stations in uncertain transportation environment.This study could provide theoretical support to the urban traffic mode split and site selection of transfer stations.

关 键 词：交通运输工程 累积前景理论 组合出行模式 交通分配 相继平均算法 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]