基于匹配对比理论的导线失效率预计工具设计与开发  

Design and Development of Wire Failure Rate Prediction Tool Based on the Comparison Model

作　　者：马赞[1] 肖女娥[1] 董磊[1] 袁庆洋 MA Zan;XIAO Nve;DONG Lei;YUAN Qingyang(Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;Beijing Star Network Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100040,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学,天津300300 [2]北京星网云际科技有限公司,北京100040

出　　处：《飞机设计》2020年第3期45-49,共5页Aircraft Design

摘　　要：当前国内缺乏民机设计理论和实践经验,民机导线失效数据无成熟的收集体系,无法通过统计得到导线可靠性数据。在使用FAA的理论方法上,考虑环境因素相关性,以建立导线失效率评估方法。确定适用的典型环境,将相应专家对环境的对比评判数据量化,使用逐步回归方法建立导线失效率模型,将该模型方法集成化,研制出导线失效率预计工具软件。通过实例验证,工具能得到正确的结论模型,从而证明,该工具有很好的实用性。As the domestic civil aircraft design is short of theoretical and practical experience,and there is no mature collection system for the failure data of civil aircraft conductor,the reliability data of conductor cannot be calculated by statistics methods. Based on FAA theory,with consideration to the correlation of environmental factors,the evaluation method for failure rate of conductor is established. With defined typical environment and quantified comparative judgment data between environments,failure rate model was established by stepwise regression method.These processes were integrated in Wire Failure Rate Prediction Tool.With practical comprehensive results obtained by the tool in specific cases,the practicability was proved.

关 键 词：民机导线 失效率 匹配对比理论 逐步回归 软件工具 

分 类 号：V37[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]