非物流数据条件下对物流需求预测的实用性研究  

Research on Practicability of Non-logistics Data in Logistics Demand Forecasting

作　　者：石川 Shi Chuan(Department of Information&Computing Science,Chengdu Technological University,Chengdu 611730,China)

机构地区：[1]成都工业学院信息与计算科学系,四川成都611730

出　　处：《物流技术》2020年第7期124-128,156,共6页Logistics Technology

摘　　要：在缺少物流数据的条件下,以某企业销售数据替代物流数据,利用ARIMA模型对该企业区域物流需求进行预测,并用实际数据进行检验。在预测数据和地理位置信息的基础上建立物流配置比重模型,通过计算该企业每月不同区域的物流配置比重对其下一年物流计划提出合理建议。该方法简单实用,易于推广,后续可研究空间大。In the absence of logistics data,this paper substituted the sales data of a certain enterprise for its logistics data,used the ARIMA model to predict the regional logistics demand of the enterprise,and verified the forecasting using actual data.Next,based on the forecast data and relevant geographic information,a model of logistics resources allocation was established to suggest the reasonable logistics plan for the next year through calculating the logistics assets of the enterprise as allocated among the regions on a monthly basis.

关 键 词：非物流数据 企业销售数据 区域物流 需求预测 时间序列分析 ARIMA 物流配置比重模型 

分 类 号：F721.7[经济管理—产业经济] F252