人口流动管制与中国疫情防控成效分析  

Analysis on the effectiveness of population flow control and epidemic prevention and control in China

作　　者：张晓明[1] ZHANG Xiao-ming(University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学,北京102488

出　　处：《经济研究导刊》2020年第20期4-11,共8页Economic Research Guide

摘　　要：人口流动与传染病的扩散存在着密切关系。通过利用新冠疫情爆发以来全国范围内的人口迁徙数据,运用双重差分模型进行实证分析,发现中国全国性的人口流动管制政策有效减少了居民的城际出行强度和城内出行强度,使得疫情期间的人口流动规模显著降低,在客观上促进了疫情防控工作取得成效。此外,通过检验经济活动对于人口流动规模的影响,在机制分析结果中发现,中国各省在疫情期间强制的停工、停业、停产政策对于限制人口流动具有重要作用。There is a close relationship between population mobility and the spread of infectious diseases.By using the data of population migration in the whole country since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic,and using the double difference model to carry on the empirical analysis,it is found that the national population flow control policy in China has effectively reduced the intercity travel intensity and the city travel intensity of the residents,made the population flow scale significantly reduced during the epidemic period,and objectively promoted the epidemic prevention and control work to achieve results.In addition,by examining the impact of economic activities on the scale of population mobility,the mechanism analysis results show that the compulsory shutdown,shutdown and shutdown policies of Chinese provinces during the epidemic period play an important role in restricting population mobility.

关 键 词：新冠疫情防控 人口流动 双重差分法 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] R749[医药卫生—神经病学与精神病学]