基于FDM-AHP的既有居住建筑剩余服务寿命预测模型研究  

On life-long prediction model for currently existing residential buildings based on FDM and AHP

作　　者：李勤 董美美 LI Qin;DONG Mei-mei(School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044,China;College of Civil Engineering,Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi’an 710055,China)

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学建筑与城市规划学院,北京100044 [2]西安建筑科技大学土木工程学院,西安710055

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2020年第3期1132-1138,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：住建部2018年科学技术项目(2018-K2-004);北京市社会科学基金项目(18YTC020);北京建筑大学未来城市设计高精尖创新中心资助项目(udc2018010921,udc2016020100);北京市教育科学“十三五”规划2019年度课题(CDDB19167);中国建设教育协会课题(2019061)。

摘　　要：针对既有建筑中所占份额较大的居住建筑改造可行性,就既有居住建筑改造潜力进行研究,根据多级过时因素建立剩余服务寿命预测模型,采用文献数据分析可视化的方法对研究领域6 000份学术论文进行统计分析以便进一步精确定位问卷调查专家,通过Fuzzy-Delphi与AHP相结合的方法对多层级指标体系进行量化分析,并根据中国实际情况更新剩余寿命预测模型,将该模型应用于4个实际案例。结果表明,模型结果与专家现场评估结果基本一致,该模型结果可靠。This paper intends to examine the obsolescence factors of the currently existing residential buildings. The research goal is to establish a prediction model for the remaining service life in assessing the potentiality of the prolong life of such residential buildings to promote the sustainable development of the house-building industry. And,so,we have referred to and analyzed 262 journal papers statistically in the field concerned through the literature data analysis and visualization so as to disclose the current situation of the existing residential building renovation and the commonly used multi-standard decision-making methods. And,then,in the previous studies of the given field,we have also done such analyses through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy mathematics integrated decision-making method.Thus,it can be seen that the given paper has adopted FuzzyDelphi and AHP combination method to bring up forward 2 improvements in the calculation accuracy: (1) Having accurately located the experts in the given field by drawing a scientific map and succeeded in facilitating the questionnaire survey;and (2) Having succeeded in processing the expertise questionnaire more reasonably so as to be able to determine the indicating system with the Fuzzy-Delphi method.That is,the authors of 6 000 papers involved in the architectural renovation in the Cnki. Net can be made more familiar to the experts chosen for the questionnaire survey program,with the results of the network visualization being obtained. And,then,FDM has been made adopted to establish a 3-tier indicator system based on the results of the questionnaire survey and MATLAB for the threshold value determination. And,eventually,the AHP can be adopted to determine the final absolute weight. And,what is more,in the final determination process,since the indicator system tends to be rather large,the yaahp analytic hierarchy processing software based on AHP can be used for hierarchical processing.And,therefore,at the end of the given paper,we would like to

关 键 词：环境工程学 既有居住建筑 再生潜力 剩余服务寿命 模糊-德尔菲方法(FDM) 层次分析法(AHP) 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]