宝中铁路平凉南至中卫段扩能改造运量预测研究  

Forecast Study on the Traffic Volume After Capacity Expansion Revamping of Southern Pingliang-Zhongwei Section of Baoji-Zhongwei Railway

作　　者：郎志峰 Lang Zhifeng(State Key Laboratory of Rail Transit Engineering Informatization (FSDI),Xi'an 710043,China)

机构地区：[1]轨道交通工程信息化国家重点实验室(中铁一院),陕西西安710043

出　　处：《甘肃科学学报》2020年第4期131-136,152,共7页Journal of Gansu Sciences

摘　　要：宝鸡至中卫铁路是新亚欧大陆桥的辅助通道,在区域路网中占有重要地位。目前宝中铁路能力利用率已达96.0%,通过能力处于超饱和状态,难以满足日益增长的运输需求。为进一步完善区域综合交通体系,促进六盘山地区社会经济快速发展,应尽快对宝中铁路进行扩能改造。研究通过分析宝中铁路所处地理位置、在国民经济及路网中承担的作用,综合采用四阶段法、产销平衡法、弹性系数法、时间序列法等多种预测方法,对项目客货运量进行系统预测分析,预测结果表明宝中铁路远期客货运量将分别达到495万人/年、3033万吨/年。扩能改造完成后,宝中铁路将对推进区域社会经济发展起到重要的支撑和促进作用。The Baoji-Zhongwei railway,as an auxiliary passage of the New Eurasian Continental Bridge,plays a important role in the regional road network.At present,the capacity utilization rate of Baoji-Zhongwei railway has reached 96.0%,and the carrying capacity has been supersaturated,which make it difficult for the railway to meet the increasing transportation demand.In order to further improve the regional comprehensive transportation system and promote the rapid social and economic development in Liupanshan area,it is necessary to carry out capacity expansion revamping on Baoji-Zhongwei railway as soon as possible.Forecast of traffic volume is the important foundation of railway planning and design,as well as the important basis for project decisions.This study made systematic forecast and analysis on the volume of passenger and freight traffic of the project,by means of four-phase method,coordination between production and marketing,elastic coefficient method,and time series method,through the analysis of the geographical position of Baoji-Zhongwei railway and its role in the national economy and road network.The forecast results showed that the volume of passenger and freight traffic of Baoji-Zhongwei railway would reach 4.95 million person/year and 30.33 million tons/year,respectively.After the completion of capacity expansion revamping,the Baoji-Zhongwei railway will contribute greatly to support and promote the regional social and economic development.

关 键 词：货运量预测 客运量预测 功能定位 运输需求 

分 类 号：U293[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] U294[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]