利用ETP模型预测CCS技术对全球能源市场的影响  

Prediction of the impact of CCS Technology on the global energy market by a ETP Model

作　　者：杨红梅 翟志伟 YANG Hongmei;ZHAI Zhiwei(Shanxi Institute of Energy,Taiyuan 030006,China;Shanxi Hongmao Technology Service Co.,Ltd.,Taiyuan 030032,China)

机构地区：[1]山西能源学院,山西太原030006 [2]山西弘茂技术服务有限公司,山西太原030032

出　　处：《能源环境保护》2020年第4期81-85,共5页Energy Environmental Protection

基　　金：山西省高等学校科技创新项目(No.201802112);山西能源学院院级科研基金项目(No.ZY2017001)。

摘　　要：利用ETP模型对比了BASE和GLO两种能源方案,分析了碳捕获与封存(CCS)技术对煤炭市场、天然气市场、石油市场和可再生能源市场的影响。结果表明:CCS技术可以有效减少CO2排放量,降低环境政策成本,并对能源优化、环境保护和清洁能源的使用产生积极作用;CCS技术对煤炭市场的影响最为显著,对石油、天然气及可再生能源市场的影响依次减弱;对于煤炭市场,在不同的罚款政策背景下,2025年之前的使用量无明显变化,但CCS技术的应用将大幅提升煤炭清洁高效的使用量,煤炭使用量在GLO100和Base情景下约分别增加150 EJ/Yr和400 EJ/Yr;在不同罚款政策背景下,CCS技术对石油、天然气及可再生能源市场均有积极的影响,可使能源使用率增加1%~45%。Based on a ETP model,BASE and GLO energy scenarios were compared. The impact of carbon capture and storage( CCS) technology on the coal market,natural gas market,oil market and renewable energy market was analyzed. The results show that CCS technology can effectively reduce CO2 emissions,reduce environmental cost due to policies,and play a positive role in energy optimization,environmental protection and utilization of clean energy. According to the impact of CCS technology,the order of markets from high to low is coal market,oil market,natural gas market,and renewable energy market. For the coal market,under different policies,the coal consumption will not change significantly before 2025. However,the application of CCS technology can promote the the clean and efficient use of coal. The coal consumption will increase by about 150 EJ/yr and 400 EJ/yr under the GLO100 and Base scenarios,respectively. Under different policies,CCS technology has a positive impact on the oil,natural gas and renewable energy markets and increases the energy utilization rate by 1% ~ 45%.

关 键 词：CCS技术 能源市场 ETP模型 BASE方案 GLO方案 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]