基于影响因素分析的公共自行车系统可持续发展研究——以呼和浩特市为例  

Research on the Sustainable Development of the Public Bicycle System Based on Influencing Factors——Taking Hohhot as an Example

作　　者：菅美英[1] 张嘉誉 刘振宇[1] 张东美 王璐 JIAN Mei-ying;ZHANG Jia-yu;LIU Zhen-yu;ZHANG Dong-mei;WANG Lu(College of Transportation,Inner Mongolia University,Hohhot 010000,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古大学交通学院,呼和浩特010000

出　　处：《内蒙古大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第4期427-433,共7页Journal of Inner Mongolia University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：内蒙古自治区级大学生创新创业训练计划资助项目(201810126065);内蒙古自治区高等学校科学研究项目(NJZY17012,NJZY20009);内蒙古自治区教育科学研究“十三五”规划课题(NGJGH2018016)。

摘　　要：自行车是绿色出行的主要交通方式之一。我国许多城市的公共自行车系统存在调度不合理、硬件设施不完善造成的难以可持续发展问题。因此,在深入剖析公共自行车系统影响因素的基础上,研究其可持续发展问题。首先,基于问卷调查数据,建立Logit模型,定量描述各因素对居民选择自行车出行的影响;接着对系统的效益进行分析与优化;最终基于影响因素给出系统可持续发展的相关建议。研究表明,出行距离、离单车或站点距离、租借方式、是否有自行车专用道、是否保有机动车对租借概率具有显著影响;公共自行车系统应借鉴共享单车运营模式,向有电子围栏、扫码租借和刷卡租借共存的新型自行车系统发展。研究结果可帮助有关部门有效掌握新形势下自行车选择行为的显著性影响因素,为提高公共自行车的利用率和可持续发展提供决策依据。The bicycle is one of the main modes of transportation for green travel.In many cities of China,the public bicycle system has some problems,such as unreasonable scheduling and imperfect hardware facilities,which make difficult to achieve sustainable development.Therefore,based on the in-depth analysis of influencing factors of the public bicycle system,its sustainable development is studied.First of all,based on the questionnaire data,the Logit model is established to quantitatively describe the impact of various factors on residents’ choice of bicycle travel.Then,the benefit of the system is analyzed and optimized.Finally,the relevant suggestions for sustainable development of the system are given based on the influencing factors.The results show that travel distance,distance from bicycle or station,rental mode,whether there is a bicycle lane and whether there is a motor vehicle have a significant impact on the rental probability.The public bicycle system should learn from the shared bicycle operation mode and develop to a new bicycle system with electronic fences,code scanning rental and card swiping rental.The research results can help the relevant departments to effectively know the significant influencing factors of bicycle selection behavior in the new situation,and provide decision-making basis for improving the utilization rate and sustainable development of public bicycles.

关 键 词：影响因素 LOGIT模型 系统效益 可持续发展 

分 类 号：U484[交通运输工程—载运工具运用工程]