税率变动对主要污染物产生量影响的分析评估  

Analysis and evaluation of the impact of tax rate changes on the production of major pollutants

作　　者：王宇 王勇 俞海 WANG Yu;WANG Yong;YU Hai(Policy Research Center for Environment and Economy,Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]生态环境部环境与经济政策研究中心环境战略部,北京100029 [2]生态环境部环境与经济政策研究中心,北京100029

出　　处：《环境与可持续发展》2020年第4期34-41,共8页Environment and Sustainable Development

基　　金：环境规制下企业动态调整的机制路径、生产率效应及对策研究(19CJY029)。

摘　　要：研究减税降费政策对生态环境保护的长期宏观形势影响是一项十分重要的基础性工作。基于数理分析和实证研究发现:(1)降低能源消费强度低的生产要素和产品的税率有利于减少生产和消费过程中的污染物产生量,是最值得鼓励的双赢措施,在市场均衡状态下,不考虑行业乃至产品差异性而统一降低税率的做法对污染物产生量的总体影响具有不确定性;(2)税率变动对污染物产生量的负面影响较小,总体看来,总税率、增值税(营业税)税率、所得税税率的变动对大气和水污染物产生量变动的贡献度均小于能源消费量和经济活动水平的贡献度;(3)根据能源消费强度进行分组,实证检验结果显示增值税(营业税)税率对不同行业的主要污染物产生量均有不同程度的显著负面影响;(4)降低税率刺激经济增长的同时污染物产生量也会增加,需要配合更有效的减排措施,研究制定能落实到企业和产品层次的差异化税率调节机制,才能实现污染物排放量的降低和生态环境质量的改善。It is a very important basic work to study the long-term macro impact of tax reduction and fee reduction policy on ecological environment protection.Based on mathematical analysis and empirical research,it is found that:(1)Reducing the tax rate of production factors and products with low energy consumption intensity is conducive to reducing the production of pollutants in the process of production and consumption,which is the most encouraging win-win measure.In the market equilibrium state,the overall impact of reducing the tax rate without considering the differences of industries and even products on the total production of pollutants is uncertain;(2)The change of tax rate has little negative impact on pollutant production.In general,the contribution of changes in total tax rate,value-added tax rate(business tax)rate and income tax rate to the change of air and water pollutant production is less than that of energy consumption and economic activity level;(3)For manufacturing industries sectors grouped according to energy consumption intensity,the empirical test shows that the value-added tax(business tax)tax rate has a significant negative impact on the main pollution of different industries;(4)In order to reduce the emission of pollutants and improve the quality of ecological environment,we need to cooperate with more effective emission reduction measures,research and develop a differential tax rate adjustment mechanism that can be implemented at the enterprise and product level.

关 键 词：数理分析 实证检验 减税降费 能源消费强度 污染物产生量 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]