以时间换空间:欧美大石油公司天然气业务战略调整初探  

Time for Space:preliminary analysis on IOCs’gas business strategy amendment

作　　者：姜学峰[1] 单卫国[1] 宋磊 张永峰[1] 徐东[3] JIANG Xuefeng;SHAN Weiguo;SONG Lei;ZHANG Yongfeng;XU Dong(CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute;CNPC Research Institute of Safety&Environment Technology;PetroChina Planning&Engineering Institute)

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院 [2]中国石油集团安全环保技术研究院有限公司 [3]中国石油规划总院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2020年第8期8-17,共10页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：欧美大石油公司普遍被新冠肺炎疫情拖入“严冬”,同时面临多重监管压力,但是依然看好天然气业务前景。无论是美国的“大油气”公司还是欧洲的“大能源”公司,实际上都把天然气作为“低碳战略”的核心。天然气作为发电燃料和制氢原料仍有巨大发展空间,但须解决好碳强度和甲烷泄漏问题。综合考虑当前困境、低碳压力和未来发展,大公司采取“以时间换空间”的天然气战略应对,即以目前的收缩来换取市场转机,以有限的时间窗口谋取低碳技术突破,换取将来天然气低碳成本优势、市场竞争力和业务空间。对中国油气公司的启示是:树立底线思维,持续降低各项成本;坚定发展信心,做大做强天然气业务;树立低碳理念,加大减排力度。IOCs are stranded in COVID-19 pandemic and challenged by pressures with multiple regulatory.However,gas business is still of rosy future to them.Both US“big oil”companies and European“big energy”companies regard gas as the core of their“low carbon strategy”.There is an enormous space for gas either as fuel to power generation or as feedstock to hydrogen if solving such problems as carbon intensity and methane leaking.In consideration of current difficulties,low carbon pressures and future development,most of the IOCs have made a strategic response named as“Time for Space”,which means that current cost-reduction and CAPEX-cuts for future market rebalance,limited“window of chances”and increasing low carbon inputs for technology breakthroughs and competitiveness&market share for IOCs.The implications for Chinese NOCs and gas stakeholders includes that establishing bottom-line thinking,reducing all costs,taking firm development confidence with gas business,building the concept of low carbon,and boosting GHG emissions reduction.

关 键 词：天然气战略 国际大石油公司 新冠肺炎疫情 温室效应 低碳投资 业务调整 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]